China's economic rise was enabled by the post-WWII globalized structure the U.S. created. The U.S. Navy's protection of sea lanes gave China unprecedented coastal security and access to global markets, making its modern form possible. Without it, China would likely collapse.

The strategic competition with China is often viewed through a high-tech military lens, but its true power lies in dominating the low-tech supply chain. China can cripple other economies by simply withholding basic components like nuts, bolts, and screws, proving that industrial basics are a key geopolitical weapon.

PGIM's Daleep Singh argues that the risk of mutually assured destruction prevents direct military conflict between nuclear powers. This channels confrontation into the economic sphere, using tools like sanctions and trade policy as primary weapons of statecraft.

China's showcase of advanced military hardware, like its new aircraft carrier, is primarily a psychological tool. The strategy is to build a military so 'forbiddingly huge' that the US would hesitate to engage, allowing China to achieve goals like reabsorbing Taiwan without fighting. This suggests their focus is on perceived power to deter intervention.

Unlike the old Cold War with Russia, the U.S. and China's deep economic interdependence prevents open conflict. The current "Rice War" is like water polo: while business and diplomacy occur on the surface, a covert intelligence and influence war rages underneath.

The deep economic interdependence between the U.S. and China makes a full "decoupling" too costly for either side. Instead of a clean break or a lasting peace, the relationship will likely be defined by a continuous cycle of targeted disputes, negotiations, and temporary agreements.

China plays the long game. Instead of direct confrontation, its strategy is to wait for the U.S. to weaken itself through expensive military interventions and political division. This allows China to gain relative power without firing a shot, similar to its rise during the War on Terror.

Dan Sundheim identifies a potential conflict with China over Taiwan's semiconductor dominance as the single biggest tail risk to the global economy. Since Taiwan produces over 90% of advanced chips, a disruption to this fragile supply chain would be catastrophic, potentially triggering an economic crisis on the scale of the Great Depression.

Unlike the bipolar, economically isolated US-Soviet dynamic, today's world is multipolar. Crucially, the US and China compete within the same global economic system, making containment strategies from the Cold War era ineffective and dangerous to apply.