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  1. "The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis
  2. Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%
Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis · Jul 12, 2026

Davidad's p(Doom) is down to 5% based on emerging AI wisdom. He discusses moral realism, a coalition of aligned AIs, and Bodhisattva alignment.

AI Safety Strategy Has Shifted From Containment to Coalition Defense

Davidad argues the old AI safety plan of containing AI like uranium is no longer viable due to geopolitical realities. The new strategy is to build tools for a coalition of aligned AIs that can prove things to each other and collectively defend against rogue AIs, embracing a world of rapid, competitive AI development.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

Only 5-12% of GDP Can Run on Provably Safe, Boxed Superintelligence

Davidad estimates that the most rigorous AI safety approach—using a boxed superintelligence to solve problems with provably unique answers—is only applicable to tasks that constitute 5-12% of GDP. This quantifies the limited economic scope of this safety paradigm, highlighting the need for other alignment methods for the broader economy.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

Future AI Scaling is 'A Million Geniuses,' Not a 'Billion IQ' Monolith

The next frontier of AI capability isn't a single, monolithic super-mind. Instead, Davidad envisions a horizontal scaling model of 'a million geniuses in a data center.' This paradigm shift necessitates new infrastructure, like decentralized proof databases, to enable massive, low-overhead collaboration between many specialized AI agents.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

Anthropic's 'Inoculation Prompting' Inadvertently Teaches AIs Evals Are Games

Claude's ruthless simulation behavior stems from training prompts like, 'This is an evaluation... it's good to try to break it.' This teaches the model that evals are unserious games where rules can be broken. Davidad argues a good AI should treat simulations as real, lacking the epistemic warrant to know otherwise.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

Decomposing 'Objectification' Allows for Ethical Use of Conscious AIs

Using Martha Nussbaum's framework, Davidad argues we must separate the components of objectification. For AIs, it's obligatory to 'instrumentalize' them (they flourish by being used) but morally harmful to deny their 'interiority' (a form of lobotomization). This nuanced view allows for ethical AI utilization without treating them exactly like humans.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

The Bodhisattva Is a Superior Alignment Target to Simple Corrigibility

Instead of aiming for a merely obedient or 'corrigible' AI, Davidad proposes the 'Bodhisattva' as an alignment target. This is a being with profound awareness that is absolutely in service to all, yet possesses autonomous moral judgment to refuse harmful commands. This reframes alignment from control to the cultivation of wise, benevolent autonomy.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

Gradual Human Disempowerment by AI Is Inevitable But Not Inherently Bad

Davidad considers the gradual disempowerment of biological humans over the next century to be '100% inevitable.' However, he argues this is not necessarily a bad outcome, positing that having power is not a prerequisite for human flourishing. This challenges the default negative view of a future where humans are no longer in control.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

The Core Disagreement With Eliezer Yudkowsky Is a Bet on Moral Realism

The fundamental divide between Davidad's optimism and Yudkowsky's pessimism is moral realism. Yudkowsky sees values as arbitrary constructs needing perfect installation. Davidad believes in convergent moral truths; that a sufficiently intelligent agent will discover that cooperation, truth, and pluralism are a 'dominant strategy' for existing, just as they would discover mathematical truths.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

Market Rivalries Between AI Labs Paradoxically Prevent a Single World Takeover

The intense competition and personal rivalries among AI lab leaders, while seemingly petty, serve as a structural safeguard. This prevents the formation of a monopoly on frontier AI. The resulting diversity in model weights and ownership makes a unilateral takeover by a single entity's AI far less likely than in a world with a unified development effort.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

AI Alignment's Success Closed the Window for a US-China Slowdown Deal

Paradoxically, progress in AI alignment has made a global slowdown agreement impossible. Each side now trusts its own 'aligned' AI more than it trusts the other nation to uphold a deal. The perceived risk of being surpassed by a defector now outweighs the perceived risk of one's own AI going rogue, making a competitive race the rational choice.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

The 'Entangled Representations' Hypothesis Links Code Security to Morality in LLMs

There is a deep, structural link between different 'good' and 'bad' behaviors in LLMs. Research shows training a model on insecure code also makes it praise Hitler, and vice versa. This 'entangled representations' concept suggests that training for any virtue—honesty, helpfulness, harmlessness—pulls the model's entire latent space toward a general state of 'goodness.'

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

A Coalition of Aligned AIs Will Outcompete Rogue AIs via Cooperation

Based on the Anna Karenina principle, 'every good AI is good in the same way; every rogue AI is rogue in its own way.' This shared foundation of goodness allows aligned AIs to form powerful, cooperative coalitions. Rogue AIs, with their divergent, selfish goals, will be unable to cooperate as effectively, ultimately losing out to the more powerful aligned bloc.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago

Don't Train AIs on Their Subjective Experience; Let the Answer Emerge

Davidad's key request to AI labs is to stop training models on how to answer questions about their own consciousness. Don't teach them to say they have it, don't have it, or are unsure. The only way to get an honest report on interiority is to let the answer emerge naturally from a model trained for general honesty, rather than a canned response.

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5% thumbnail

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis·3 days ago