The Israel-Palestine conflict is often framed as a religious clash, but its root is the political reality of military occupation. The Palestinian response is a predictable human reaction to subjugation, similar to the Irish resisting the British, not a unique feature of their religion.
When people are subjected to extreme humiliation and loss with no hope of justice, their motivations can shift. Violent revenge, even if suicidal, becomes a rational choice to reclaim dignity, prioritizing retaliation against an oppressor over self-preservation.
Rather than a peace deal, the Abraham Accords signaled to Palestinians that their cause was being permanently sidelined by the Arab world. This removal of hope for a future state, guest Dave Smith argues, created the desperation that set the stage for violent outbreaks like October 7.
The popularity of extremist groups like Hamas is inversely correlated with the viability of a peace process. During periods when a two-state solution seemed possible, support for Hamas declined. When hope for a political resolution collapses, extremism surges as people turn to violence as their only perceived option.
Israeli leadership recognizes that American public opinion, particularly among younger generations, is turning against them. They are likely using the current pro-Israel US administration as a final window of opportunity to expand territory and create irreversible facts on the ground before that support evaporates.
Yitzhak Rabin believed normalizing Arab relations required solving the Palestinian conflict. Benjamin Netanyahu's doctrine flipped this: use US military might to neutralize hostile Arab regimes, thereby bypassing the need to address Palestinian statehood at all, a core tenet of his political career.
Like government bailouts encouraging risky banking, unconditional US support for Israel acts as an artificial insurance policy. This "moral hazard" emboldens Israel to pursue aggressive conflicts it would otherwise avoid, knowing it won't bear the full consequences, much like having Mike Tyson as a bodyguard.
As an alternative to democracy or a two-state solution, a right-wing Israeli state could grant Palestinians full citizenship rights—property, travel, fair trial—while denying them voting rights to maintain the state's Jewish character. This offers a different, albeit controversial, path to stability over the current occupation.