Despite regulatory clarity and adoption from major financial institutions like JPMorgan, the formation of new crypto companies has decreased significantly since 2021. This lull in new entrants creates a rare and massive opportunity, as the key partnerships that will define the industry for years are being decided now.

Related Insights

The SEC's shift to "generic listing standards" for crypto ETFs removes the bespoke, lengthy approval process for each fund. This mirrors a historical rule change in traditional finance that led to a 4X increase in ETF launches, signaling an imminent explosion of diverse crypto products.

Widespread adoption of blockchain, particularly stablecoins, has been hindered by a "semi-illegal" regulatory environment in the U.S. (e.g., Operation Chokepoint). Now that this barrier is removed, major financial players are racing to integrate the technology, likely making it common within a year.

The traditional, long-term venture capital cycle may be accelerating. As both macro and technology cycles shorten, venture could start mirroring the more frequent 4-5 year boom-and-bust patterns seen in crypto. This shift would force founders, VCs, and LPs to become more adept at identifying where they are in a much shorter cycle.

Maja Vujinovic posits that Gary Gensler, despite his pro-crypto past, was strategically positioned by banks to slow innovation. This regulatory friction gave traditional financial institutions the necessary time to understand the technology and formulate their own digital asset strategies before competing.

The last decade of crypto focused on moving assets like Bitcoin on-chain. The next, more significant mega-trend will be the migration of entire companies and their real-world revenue streams onto blockchains, involving both crypto-native firms and traditional giants like BlackRock and Stripe.

Unlike assets like commodities or private markets where institutions pioneer adoption, cryptocurrencies saw retail investors lead the charge. Institutions are only now slowly beginning to explore allocations, reversing the historical trend of top-down financial innovation.

The acceptable crypto allocation for institutional investors has significantly increased, moving from a previously standard 1% to as high as 4%. This shift is driven by a fundamental change in perception: the binary 'go-to-zero' risk of crypto is no longer a primary concern for major allocators.

The AI boom is masking a broader trend: venture fundraising is at its lowest in 10 years. The 2021-22 period created an unsustainable number of new, small funds. Now, both LPs and founders are favoring established, long-term firms, causing capital to re-concentrate and the total number of funds to shrink.

Unlike past crypto cycles characterized by widespread retail hype, the current market's energy comes from institutional adoption. Traditional financial firms are moving beyond pilots and using crypto rails in production. This shift signifies a more mature, robust, and potentially more sustainable phase for the industry.

After years of exploring various use cases, crypto's clearest product-market fit is as a new version of the financial system. The success of stablecoins, prediction markets, and decentralized trading platforms demonstrates that financial applications are where crypto currently has the strongest, most undeniable traction.