Prime Minister Meloni's government has benefited from a massive influx of cash from a previous administration's home improvement scheme and EU recovery funds. This "tidal wave of money" has propped up the economy, masking a lack of growth and potential future vulnerabilities.
While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures economic output via spending, Gross Domestic Income (GDI) measures it via income. The significant gap between the two in Q3 suggests the economy's underlying strength is weaker than the headline number indicates, as an average of the two is often more accurate.
Policies designed to avoid economic downturns at all costs can lead to significant long-term risks. Capital and labor become trapped in inefficient companies that would otherwise fail, hindering productivity growth and creating a less dynamic economy.
Contrary to expectations of radical change, Giorgia Meloni has maintained stability by avoiding major actions that could upset the public or her coalition. This calculated lack of activity is a key reason for her government's endurance in a typically volatile political landscape.
When national debt grows too large, an economy enters "fiscal dominance." The central bank loses its ability to manage the economy, as raising rates causes hyperinflation to cover debt payments while lowering them creates massive asset bubbles, leaving no good options.
Global governments are actively pursuing policies (running economies hot, suppressing energy costs, managing rates down) to create a period of artificial prosperity. This is a deliberate strategy to push a massive debt sustainability crisis further into the future, which will feel great until it doesn't.
When a government's deficit spending forces it to borrow new money simply to cover the interest on existing debt, it enters a self-perpetuating "debt death spiral." This weakens the nation's financial position until it either defaults or is forced to make brutal, unpopular cuts, risking internal turmoil.
Government money printing disproportionately benefits asset owners, creating massive wealth inequality. The resulting economic insecurity fuels populism, where voters demand more spending and tax cuts, accelerating the nation's journey towards bankruptcy in a feedback loop.
A government can artificially inflate its jobs numbers and GDP by going on a hiring spree for bureaucratic roles. This growth is illusory, or "phantom," as it's funded by printing money and doesn't contribute to the productive economy. It creates positive short-term metrics but fosters long-term inefficiency.
The money printing that saved the economy in 2008 and 2020 is no longer as effective. Each crisis requires a larger 'dose' of stimulus for a smaller effect, creating an addiction to artificial liquidity that makes the entire financial system progressively more fragile.
When countries run large, structural government deficits, their policy options become limited. Historically, this state of 'fiscal dominance' leads to the implementation of capital controls and other financial frictions to prevent capital flight and manage the currency, increasing risks for investors.