A 'tale of two cities' exists in SaaS. Traditional software budgets are frozen, with spending eaten by price hikes from incumbents. Simultaneously, new, separate AI budgets are creating massive opportunities, making the market feel dead for classic SaaS but booming for AI-native solutions.
A market bifurcation is underway where investors prioritize AI startups with extreme growth rates over traditional SaaS companies. This creates a "changing of the guard," forcing established SaaS players to adopt AI aggressively or risk being devalued as legacy assets, while AI-native firms command premium valuations.
Established SaaS firms avoid AI-native products because they operate at lower gross margins (e.g., 40%) compared to traditional software (80%+). This parallels brick-and-mortar retail's fatal hesitation with e-commerce, creating an opportunity for AI-native startups to capture the market by embracing different unit economics.
For established software companies with sluggish growth, the path forward is clear: find a way to become relevant in the age of AI. While they may not become the next Harvey, attaching to AI spend can boost growth from 15% to 25%, the difference between a viable public company and a sale to a private equity firm.
Unlike traditional B2B markets where only ~5% of customers are buying at any time, the AI boom has pushed nearly 100% of companies to seek solutions at once. This temporary gold rush warps perception of market size, creating a risk of over-investment similar to the COVID-era software bubble.
Enterprise software budgets are growing, but the money is being reallocated. CIOs are forced to cut functional, "good-to-have" apps to pay for price increases from core vendors and to fund new AI tools. This means even happy customers of non-mission-critical software may churn as budgets are redirected to top priorities.
AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
The dominant per-user-per-month SaaS business model is becoming obsolete for AI-native companies. The new standard is consumption or outcome-based pricing. Customers will pay for the specific task an AI completes or the value it generates, not for a seat license, fundamentally changing how software is sold.
A massive budget shift is underway where companies spend exponentially more on AI agents than on foundational software like CRM. One small team spends $500k annually on AI agents versus just $10k on Salesforce, signaling a tectonic shift in software value and spending priorities.
The traditional SaaS model—high R&D/sales costs, low COGS—is being inverted. AI makes building software cheap but running it expensive due to high inference costs (COGS). This threatens profitability, as companies now face high customer acquisition costs AND high costs of goods sold.
Sierra CEO Bret Taylor argues that transitioning from per-seat software licensing to value-based AI agents is a business model disruption, not just a technological one. Public companies struggle to navigate this shift as it creates a 'trough of despair' in quarterly earnings, threatening their core revenue before the new model matures.