To de-risk ambitious projects, identify the most challenging sub-problem. If your team can prove that part is solvable, the rest of the project becomes a manageable operational task. This validates the entire moonshot's feasibility early on.
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To de-risk innovation, teams must avoid the trap of building easy foundational parts (the "pedestal") first. Drawing on Alphabet X's model, they should instead tackle the hardest, most uncertain challenge (the "monkey"). If the core problem is unsolvable, the pedestal is worthless.
The default assumption for any 'moonshot' idea is that it is likely wrong. The team's immediate goal is to find the fatal flaw as fast as possible. This counterintuitive approach avoids emotional attachment and speeds up the overall innovation cycle by prioritizing learning over being right.
When facing internal resistance to a big idea, the tendency is to make the idea smaller and safer. The better approach is to protect the ambitious vision but shrink the steps to validate it, using small, targeted experiments to build evidence and momentum.
Spend significant time debating and mapping out a project's feasibility with a trusted group before starting to build. This internal stress-test is crucial for de-risking massive undertakings by ensuring there's a clear, plausible path to the end goal.
When facing a major technical unknown or skill gap, don't just push forward. Give the engineering team a dedicated timebox, like a full sprint, to research, prototype, and recommend a path forward. This empowers the team, improves the solution, and provides clear data for build-vs-buy decisions.
For ambitious 'moonshot' projects, the vast majority of time and effort (90%) is spent on learning, exploration, and discovering the right thing to build. The actual construction is a small fraction (10%) of the total work. This reframes failure as a critical and expected part of the learning process.
Focus on the root cause (the "first-order issue") rather than symptoms or a long to-do list. Solving this core problem, like fixing website technology instead of cutting content, often resolves multiple downstream issues simultaneously.
Solving truly hard problems requires a form of 'arrogance'—an unwavering belief that a solution is possible, even after months or years of failure. This 'can-do' spirit acts as an accelerator, providing the persistence needed to push through challenges where most would give up.
A moonshot isn't just a big goal. It requires three parts: a major global problem, a sci-fi sounding solution that would solve it, and a specific breakthrough technology that makes the solution seem just barely possible. This framework creates a testable hypothesis.
To achieve a massive, long-term goal like building a company, break it down into a single, specific, weekly metric (e.g., "grow subscribers by 3%"). This radical focus on a micro-goal forces intense daily action, eliminates distractions like side hustles, and makes an audacious goal feel approachable.
