/
© 2026 RiffOn. All rights reserved.
  1. In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen
  2. Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration
Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen · Dec 24, 2025

Nobel laureate Saul Perlmutter on using scientific thinking—probabilistic views, team dynamics, and blind analysis—to tackle uncertainty.

Physicists Use 'Blind Analysis' to Neutralize Confirmation Bias in Data

To combat confirmation bias, withhold the final results of an experiment or analysis until the entire team agrees the methodology is sound. This prevents people from subconsciously accepting expected outcomes while overly scrutinizing unexpected ones, leading to more objective conclusions.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago

A String Quartet’s Dynamics Provide a Model for High-Performing Teams

The dynamics of chamber music offer a powerful model for collaborative teams. Each member must be a skilled expert but also constantly listen and adapt to others in real-time to create a cohesive whole. This blend of individual excellence and collective attunement is the hallmark of successful group efforts.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago

Cultivate 'Productive Arrogance' to Solve Seemingly Impossible Problems

Solving truly hard problems requires a form of 'arrogance'—an unwavering belief that a solution is possible, even after months or years of failure. This 'can-do' spirit acts as an accelerator, providing the persistence needed to push through challenges where most would give up.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago

Foster Friendly Internal Competition to Incentivize Flaw Detection

To ensure rigorous vetting of ideas, create an environment of friendly competition between teams. This structure naturally motivates each group to find flaws in the other's thinking, a process that might be socially awkward in a purely collaborative setting. The result is a more robust, error-checked outcome.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago

Collect Independent Written Input Before Group Discussions to Avoid Groupthink

To prevent the first or most senior person from anchoring a conversation, collect everyone's independent analysis in writing first. Only after this information is aggregated should the group discussion begin. This method ensures a wider range of ideas is considered and prevents premature consensus.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago

Frame Decisions in Probabilities, Not Absolutes, to Improve Collaboration

Shifting from a black-and-white "right vs. wrong" mindset to a probabilistic one (e.g., "I'm 80% sure") reduces personal attachment to ideas. This makes group discussions more fluid and productive, as people become more open to considering alternative viewpoints they might otherwise dismiss.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago

Force Creative Strategy by Scenario Planning with Unrelated Variables

A powerful scenario planning technique involves identifying future driving forces, choosing two that seem completely unrelated (e.g., economic growth and climate change), and analyzing the four extreme combinations. This forces your team to consider non-linear futures and develop more robust, resilient strategies.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago

Use Intuition to Generate Options, Then Use Logic to Rigorously Test Them

Effective problem-solving uses a two-stage process modeled by chess grandmaster Magnus Carlsen. First, leverage intuition and pattern recognition ('gut feel') to generate a small set of promising options. Then, apply rigorous, logical analysis only to that pre-filtered set, balancing creativity with analytical discipline.

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration thumbnail

Saul Perlmutter: The Accelerating Universe, Doubt as a Superpower and the Science of Collaboration

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen·2 months ago