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  1. Arguing Agile
  2. AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)
AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile · Dec 17, 2025

Ditch risk registers for a 'speed to death' framework. Prioritize validating value, usability, feasibility, and viability to avoid building unwanted products.

Replace Static Risk Registers with a Dynamic 'Learning Board'

Traditional risk registers are performative theater. Use a 'Learning Board' with three columns: 'Assumption,' 'Test,' and 'What We Learned.' This reframes risk management as a continuous discovery process and serves as a transparent communication tool for stakeholders, replacing bureaucratic documentation.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago

Prioritize Product Risks by 'Speed to Death,' Not Exhaustive Lists

Instead of creating a massive risk register, identify the core assumptions your product relies on. Prioritize testing the one that, if proven wrong, would cause your product to fail the fastest. This focuses effort on existential threats over minor issues.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago

Product Managers Must Own Business Viability, Not Defer to Execs

Business viability is often siloed to executives or sales, but the product manager and their team ultimately pay the price for failure. PMs must own this risk, tracking metrics like the LTV/CAC ratio to ensure the product is not just loved by users but is also sustainable.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago

Viability Risks Are Silent Killers That Erode Products Over Time

Unlike a failed feature launch, business viability risks (e.g., wrong pricing, changing market) kill products slowly. By the time the damage is obvious, it's often too late. This makes continuous monitoring of the business model as critical as testing new features.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago

Manage Executive Anxiety By Making Weekly Learning Visible

Executives crave predictability, which feels at odds with agile discovery. Bridge this gap by making your learning visible. A simple weekly update on tested assumptions, evidence found, and resulting decisions provides a rhythm of progress that satisfies their need for oversight without resorting to rigid plans.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago

Hiding Skill Gaps to 'Protect Morale' Leads to Team Failure

Executives often avoid acknowledging a team's technical skill gaps, believing it damages morale. In reality, this sets the team up for failure by forcing them to say 'yes' to impossible tasks. Openly identifying gaps allows for a realistic plan to train, hire, or partner.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago

Embed Tests for Marty Kagan's Four Big Risks Directly Into Epics

To make risk management tangible, build specific tests for Value, Usability, Feasibility, and Business Viability directly into each epic. This moves risk assessment from a separate, ignored artifact into the core development workflow, preventing it from becoming a waterfall-style gate.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago

De-Risk Technical Feasibility with Dedicated Research Sprints for Engineers

When facing a major technical unknown or skill gap, don't just push forward. Give the engineering team a dedicated timebox, like a full sprint, to research, prototype, and recommend a path forward. This empowers the team, improves the solution, and provides clear data for build-vs-buy decisions.

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually) thumbnail

AA241 - Product Risk: How Assumptions Kill Your Product (and Your Company, Eventually)

Arguing Agile·2 months ago