For ambitious 'moonshot' projects, the vast majority of time and effort (90%) is spent on learning, exploration, and discovering the right thing to build. The actual construction is a small fraction (10%) of the total work. This reframes failure as a critical and expected part of the learning process.
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Early ventures that failed weren't seen as setbacks but as low-cost learning opportunities. This perspective, framed by his grandfather's high-risk business, eliminated fear and built foundational skills with minimal downside, making eventual success more likely.
For leaders overwhelmed by AI, a practical first step is to apply a lean startup methodology. Mobilize a bright, cross-functional team, encourage rapid, messy iteration without fear, and systematically document failures to enhance what works. This approach prioritizes learning and adaptability over a perfect initial plan.
The default assumption for any 'moonshot' idea is that it is likely wrong. The team's immediate goal is to find the fatal flaw as fast as possible. This counterintuitive approach avoids emotional attachment and speeds up the overall innovation cycle by prioritizing learning over being right.
Conventional innovation starts with a well-defined problem. Afeyan argues this is limiting. A more powerful approach is to search for new value pools by exploring problems and potential solutions in parallel, allowing for unexpected discoveries that problem-first thinking would miss.
Non-technical founders using AI tools must unlearn traditional project planning. The key is rapid iteration: building a first version you know you will discard. This mindset leverages the AI's speed, making it emotionally easier to pivot and refine ideas without the sunk cost fallacy of wasting developer time.
Entrepreneurs often view early mistakes as regrettable detours to be avoided. The proper framing is to see them as necessary, unskippable steps in development. Every fumble, pivot, and moment of uncertainty is essential preparation for what's next, transforming regret into an appreciation for the journey itself.
Nubar Afeyan argues that companies should pursue two innovation tracks. Continuous innovation should build from the present forward. Breakthroughs, however, require envisioning a future state without a clear path and working backward to identify the necessary enabling steps.
The misconception that discovery slows down delivery is dangerous. Like stretching before a race prevents injury, proper, time-boxed discovery prevents building the wrong thing. This avoids costly code rewrites and iterative launches that miss the mark, ultimately speeding up the delivery of a successful product.
Finding entrepreneurial success often requires a decade-long period of trial and error. This phase of launching seemingly "dumb" or failed projects is not a sign of incompetence but a necessary learning curve to develop skills, judgment, and self-awareness. The key is to keep learning and taking shots.
