When complex situations are reduced to a single metric, strategy shifts from achieving the original goal to maximizing the metric itself. During the Vietnam War, using "body counts" as a proxy for success led to military decisions designed to increase casualties, not to win the war.

Related Insights

If a team is constantly struggling with prioritization, the root cause isn't poor task management; it's the absence of a clear, unifying strategy. A strong, insight-based strategy makes prioritization implicit, naturally aligning the organization and reducing distractions.

Relying too heavily on models like 2x2 matrices can suppress the essential human element of creativity. Leaders must balance structured analysis with unstructured thought, recognizing frameworks are tools, not ultimate solutions. The human element of creative thinking is irreplaceable for winning strategically.

When launching a new strategy, define the specific go/no-go decision criteria on paper from day one. This prevents "revisionist history" where success metrics are redefined later based on new fact patterns or biases. This practice forces discipline and creates clear accountability for future reviews.

True effectiveness comes from focusing on outcomes—real-world results. Many people get trapped measuring inputs (e.g., hours worked) or outputs (e.g., emails sent), which creates a feeling of productivity without guaranteeing actual progress toward goals.

Measuring engineering success with metrics like velocity and deployment frequency (DORA) incentivizes shipping code quickly, not creating customer value. This focus on output can actively discourage the deep product thinking required for true innovation.

According to Goodhart's Law, when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. If you incentivize employees on AI-driven metrics like 'emails sent,' they will optimize for the number, not quality, corrupting the data and giving false signals of productivity.

Setting rigid targets incentivizes employees to present favorable numbers, even subconsciously. This "performance theater" discourages them from investigating negative results, which are often the source of valuable learning. The muscle for detective work atrophies, and real problems remain hidden beneath good-looking metrics.

When complex entities like universities are judged by simplified rankings (e.g., U.S. News), they learn to manipulate the specific inputs to the ranking formula. This optimizes their score without necessarily making them better institutions, substituting genuine improvement for the appearance of it.

The brain's tendency to create stories simplifies complex information but creates a powerful confirmation bias. As illustrated by a military example where a friendly tribe was nearly bombed, leaders who get trapped in their narrative will only see evidence that confirms it, ignoring critical data to the contrary.

Focusing on metrics like click-through rates without deep qualitative understanding of customer motivations leads to scattered strategies. This busywork creates an illusion of progress while distracting from foundational issues. Start with the qualitative "why" before measuring the quantitative "what."