The explosive growth of prediction markets is driven by regulatory arbitrage. They capture immense value from the highly-regulated sports betting industry by operating under different, less restrictive rules for 'prediction markets,' despite significant product overlap.

A restrictive stance on mergers and acquisitions stifles the entire startup ecosystem by removing viable exit paths. Allowing M&A to flourish provides the liquidity events that encourage venture capitalists to deploy risk capital into the next generation of innovative companies.

A specific arbitrage opportunity exists with serial acquirers. When they announce a deal that will significantly increase future earnings per share, the market often under-reacts. An investor can buy shares at a compressed forward multiple before the full impact of the acquisition is priced in.

During the uncertain regulatory review of its Adobe acquisition, Figma's leadership kept its "foot on the gas." Because an acquirer cannot direct a company's activities pre-close, Figma continued executing its independent roadmap, ensuring it remained strong whether the deal succeeded or failed.

The U.S. government (via CFIUS) forced Grindr's Chinese owner to sell within one year over national security concerns. This created a distressed, time-sensitive M&A situation with a limited buyer pool, which savvy, non-traditional investors were able to capitalize on.

Investors often reject ideas in markets where previous companies failed, a bias they call "scar tissue." This creates an opportunity for founders who can identify a key change—like new AI technology or shifting consumer behavior—that makes a previously impossible idea now viable.

The most lucrative exit for a startup is often not an IPO, but an M&A deal within an oligopolistic industry. When 3-4 major players exist, they can be forced into an irrational bidding war driven by the fear of a competitor acquiring the asset, leading to outcomes that are even better than going public.

When an acquisition fails due to regulatory hurdles, the resulting breakup fee can be a strategic financial boon. For example, Figma received a $1 billion fee from Adobe after their deal was blocked, which functioned as non-dilutive capital to help the company re-accelerate its growth.

Figma's market initially seemed too small to attract major VC interest or intense competition, giving them space to build a defensible product. Founders can gain a significant advantage by working in overlooked spaces, provided they have genuine passion to sustain them for a decade or more.