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Even a perfectly run, high-growth company can fail to exit. Ryan Levesque's $70 million deal collapsed when Russia's invasion of Ukraine panicked capital markets, evaporating M&A activity overnight and highlighting the significant role of external factors beyond a founder's control.

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When financial buyers (like PE firms) pull back due to market conditions, a strategic acquisition by a competitor can be a viable exit path. After two failed PE deals, Ryan Levesque successfully sold his company to his main rival, a deal that started with a simple WhatsApp message.

Founders who try to perfectly time an exit with market conditions are twice as likely to have second thoughts and report less satisfaction. The most fulfilled founders are those who sell when they are personally ready, regardless of market timing.

Initial lowball acquisition offers can feel defeating, forcing a founder to abandon the exit dream. This forces a necessary shift to building a sustainable, long-term business. This new focus, ironically, is what makes the company far more attractive to acquirers in the future.

A startup can execute flawlessly, but a major market pullback can still create existential threats. Byron Deeter's dot-com bust experience taught him that founders must expect to navigate economic cycles and must raise capital with enough buffer to ensure the macro environment can't sink their ship.

The path to an exit is a market in itself. It's often easier to sell a $20M company you fully own than a $500M venture-backed one. The pool of buyers is larger and the process less scrutinized, making a smaller, bootstrapped exit potentially more profitable for the founder.

Overweighting a founder's talent while ignoring market dynamics is a critical error. A challenging market creates significant friction that even the best founders struggle to overcome. Investors should prioritize finding markets that act as an accelerant, providing tailwinds for a great founder to succeed.

M&A opportunities are fleeting. The internal champion for a deal might leave or company priorities can shift dramatically, killing the opportunity. The OpenAI/TBPN deal likely wouldn't happen post-'Code Red'. Time and management turnover are the enemies of all deals, making it crucial to seize good offers.

M&A activity is not constant; it ebbs and flows with the political climate. Administrations perceived as "anti-M&A" can significantly slow deals. Founders looking for a strategic acquisition should consider the current political cycle as a key factor in their exit timing.

Founders who wait until they need to sell have already failed. A successful exit requires a multi-year 'background process' of building relationships. The key is to engage with SVPs and business unit leaders at potential acquirers—the people who will champion the deal internally—not just the Corp Dev team who merely execute transactions.

Two founders rejected a $20M acquisition offer they felt was too low. After successfully pivoting their business during the pandemic, they returned to the same buyer and received a doubled offer of $40M with better terms. This shows how patience and focusing on business performance can dramatically improve an exit outcome.

Successful Business Exits Depend Heavily on Macroeconomic Luck and Timing | RiffOn