Capitalism values scarcity. AI's core disruption is not just automating tasks, but making human-like intellectual labor so abundant that its market value approaches zero. This breaks the fundamental economic loop of trading scarce labor for wages.
Beyond displacing current workers, AI will lead to hiring "abatement," where companies proactively eliminate roles from their hiring plans altogether. This is a subtle but profound workforce shift, as entire job categories may vanish from the market before employees can be retrained.
The potential for an AI-driven, post-capitalist world of abundance is real. However, the path there will likely be as destructive as a world war, as the rapid upending of the economic order will throw society into chaos before stability is achieved.
The primary economic incentive driving AI development is not replacing software, but automating the vastly larger human labor market. This includes high-skill jobs like accountants, lawyers, and auditors, representing a multi-trillion dollar opportunity that dwarfs the SaaS industry and dictates where investment will flow.
Just as NAFTA brought cheap goods but eliminated manufacturing jobs, AI will create immense productivity via a new class of "digital immigrants" (AIs in data centers). This will generate abundance and cheap digital services but risks displacing vast swaths of cognitive labor and concentrating wealth.
The advent of super-intelligent AI challenges the core tenets of free-market capitalism. When human labor competes against entities that are exponentially more capable, the 'creative destruction' model could lead to mass unemployment and social instability, forcing a move away from pure capitalism.
As AI commoditizes execution and intellectual labor, the only remaining scarce human skill will be judgment: the wisdom to know what to build, why, and for whom. This shifts economic value from effort and hard work to discernment and taste.
For current AI valuations to be realized, AI must deliver unprecedented efficiency, likely causing mass job displacement. This would disrupt the consumer economy that supports these companies, creating a fundamental contradiction where the condition for success undermines the system itself.
Frame AI not as a tool, but as a wave of "digital immigrants" with superhuman cognitive abilities. Similar to how the NAFTA trade agreement outsourced manufacturing, AI will outsource knowledge work. This will create abundance for some but risks hollowing out the middle class and social fabric.
As AI gets exponentially smarter, it will solve major problems in power, chip efficiency, and labor, driving down costs across the economy. This extreme efficiency creates a powerful deflationary force, which is a greater long-term macroeconomic risk than the current AI investment bubble popping.
As AI systems become infinitely scalable and more capable, humans will become the weakest link in any cognitive team. The high risk of human error and incorrect conclusions means that, from a purely economic perspective, human cognitive input will eventually detract from, rather than add to, value creation.