Since China's leadership is incapable of good-faith negotiation and the state is on a path to collapse, the U.S. must prepare for its absence. This requires a strategic shift to industrial policy to onshore manufacturing and create resilient supply chains, even if it's not purely capitalistic.

The current trade friction is part of a larger, long-term bipartisan U.S. strategy of "competitive confrontation." This involves not just tariffs but also significant domestic investment, like the CHIPS Act, to build resilient supply chains and reduce reliance on China for critical industries, a trend expected to persist across administrations.

The US won World War II largely due to its unparalleled manufacturing capacity. Today, that strategic advantage has been ceded to China. In a potential conflict, the US would face an adversary that mirrors its own historical strength, creating a critical national security vulnerability.

The US cannot win a manufacturing-based war of attrition against China. Instead of stockpiling existing weapons, the focus must shift to creating a defense industrial base that can rapidly adapt and circumvent new threats. This requires smart, targeted investments in flexible capabilities rather than sheer volume.

While the U.S. buys time to rebuild, rivals like China may see this strategic pause as a temporary window of American vulnerability, creating a high-stakes deterrence challenge where they feel incentivized to act before U.S. strength recovers.

The shift towards a less aggressive stance is not weakness, but a strategic pause. Both the U.S. and China need time to build domestic strength, creating a temporary 'modus vivendi' the U.S. can use to improve its long-term competitive position.

The Under Secretary of War defines the current "1938 moment" not as an imminent war, but as a critical juncture for rebuilding the domestic industrial base. The focus is on reversing decades of outsourcing critical components like minerals and pharmaceuticals, which created strategic vulnerabilities now deemed unacceptable for national security.

The US's global power is eroding due to debt and inflation. Trump's aggressive foreign policy is not random; it's a high-risk strategy to press America's current advantage and re-establish dominance before rivals like China can take over. The only alternative is accepting a managed decline.

The current lull in US-China tensions should not be mistaken for a stable détente. It's a temporary stalemate born from mutual leverage recognition. Both nations are using this pause to fortify their domestic capabilities and supply chains for the next round of competition.