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The US government values its massive gold reserves at a decades-old price of $42/ounce. By simply revaluing this gold to modern market prices, it can increase its stated assets by over $800 billion. This accounting change would make US debt appear more credit-worthy to foreign investors without purchasing new assets.
The US freezing Russian assets and cutting SWIFT access during the Ukraine war demonstrated the risks of relying on the dollar. This prompted countries like China to accelerate their diversification into gold, viewing it as a geopolitically neutral asset to reduce their vulnerability to US foreign policy and sanctions.
Facing unprecedented government debt, a cycle of money printing and currency devaluation is likely. Investors should follow the lead of central banks, which are buying gold at record rates while holding fewer Treasury bonds, signaling a clear institutional strategy to own hard assets.
Executive Order 6102 forced citizens to surrender gold so the government could unilaterally reprice it from $20.67 to $35/ounce a year later. This instantly devalued every dollar in existence by 41%, a move necessitated by years of money printing to counterfeit their own currency.
Global central banks are buying gold not just for diversification, but as a strategic hedge against geopolitical risks. The use of financial sanctions against nations like Russia has accelerated this trend, as countries seek assets outside the direct control of the US-dominated financial system.
The surge in gold's value isn't just about uncertainty; it's a direct signal that foreign central banks and major investors are losing confidence in U.S. treasuries as a safe asset. This shift threatens the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.
In 1933, President Roosevelt's administration confiscated citizens' gold at $20/ounce, then immediately devalued the dollar by repricing gold to $35/ounce. This accounting maneuver created a massive profit for the government, which was then used to fund New Deal stimulus programs.
Global central banks are buying gold not just as a hedge against the US dollar, but as a tacit admission of concern about the long-term value of all fiat currencies, including their own. This move signals a flight to a historical store of value amid fears of widespread currency devaluation.
Unlike Bitcoin, which sells off during liquidity crunches, gold is being bid up by sovereign nations. This divergence reflects a strategic shift by central banks away from US Treasuries following the sanctioning of Russia's reserves, viewing gold as the only true safe haven asset.
During episodes of US government dysfunction, such as shutdowns, the dollar tends to weaken against alternative reserve assets. The concurrent strength in gold and Bitcoin provides tangible market validation for the 'dollar debasement' thesis, suggesting investors are actively seeking havens from perceived fiscal mismanagement.
For most of history, gold was simply money and offered minimal real returns (~0.4%). Since the global move to a fiat system in 1971, where currency is backed by nothing, gold has performed exceptionally well as an alternative to paper money.