The danger to the U.S. dollar is not a dramatic replacement by the Euro or RMB, but a slow erosion of its primacy. This is visible in central banks increasing gold reserves, greater hedging activity, and China’s de-dollarization campaign. This gradual shift ultimately raises borrowing costs for the US government and American consumers.

The sustained rise in gold prices is primarily due to strategic, long-term buying by central banks, not short-term speculation. Goldman Sachs sees significant further upside potential, which is not yet priced in, from large private institutions like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds eventually adding gold as a strategic asset.

Raghuram Rajan explains that central banks are increasing gold reserves not just for diversification, but as a direct response to geopolitical risks like the seizure of Russian assets. This 'weaponization of payments' erodes trust in holding reserves in foreign currencies, making physically controlled gold more attractive as a neutral asset.

Unlike previous price rallies, the recent spike in gold has not prompted owners to sell their secondhand holdings. This indicates a fundamental shift in behavior: people are holding gold as a long-term store of value against currency debasement, not for short-term profit, signaling deep-seated distrust in government-issued money.

Facing unprecedented government debt, a cycle of money printing and currency devaluation is likely. Investors should follow the lead of central banks, which are buying gold at record rates while holding fewer Treasury bonds, signaling a clear institutional strategy to own hard assets.

Gold's historic link to US real yields broke after the US froze Russian reserves. This forced global central banks to reassess risk and buy gold regardless of price, creating a powerful new source of demand and structurally altering the market, a change now being followed by sovereign wealth funds.

Global central banks are buying gold not just for diversification, but as a strategic hedge against geopolitical risks. The use of financial sanctions against nations like Russia has accelerated this trend, as countries seek assets outside the direct control of the US-dominated financial system.

The surge in gold's value isn't just about uncertainty; it's a direct signal that foreign central banks and major investors are losing confidence in U.S. treasuries as a safe asset. This shift threatens the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.

Unlike in 1971 when the U.S. unilaterally left the gold standard, today's rally is driven by foreign central banks losing confidence in the U.S. dollar. They are actively divesting from dollars into gold, indicating a systemic shift in the global monetary order, not just a U.S. policy change.