The ratio of leading-to-coincident economic indicators is at historic lows seen only in deep recessions (1982, 2009). However, this may be skewed by the leading indicators' reliance on extremely negative consumer sentiment surveys. This divergence suggests we might be at the bottom of a cycle, not the beginning of a downturn.

Despite clear bullish signals like deregulation and a capital markets recovery, investors have hesitated to commit to financials, creating an under-owned sector. This sets the stage for a potential 'catch-up' trade, especially for regional banks positioned to regain market share.

Despite a massive tech stock run-up, key sentiment indicators and surveys of major asset allocators show caution, not the extreme bullishness seen in bubbles like the dot-com era. This suggests the market may not be at its absolute peak yet.

For commodities to benefit from reflation, rising inflation alone is not sufficient. It must be accompanied by a genuine economic and industrial rebound, indicated by rising Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs). This combination dramatically improves commodity returns, especially for energy and industrial metals.

The Fed is behind its usual schedule for easing policy due to data delays and COVID-era distortions. This has suppressed the typical market rotation but means the eventual dovish policy will likely be stronger than expected, creating significant upside for early-cycle investments.

A multi-year "rolling recession," which affected different sectors sequentially, concluded in April, quietly kicking off a new bull market. This recovery is not yet obvious because many parts of the economy still lag, which presents a significant investment opportunity.

Crossmark's Chief Market Strategist identifies investor complacency as her primary concern. The market's collective belief that earnings will continue to support upward momentum, despite underlying risks, creates a dangerous environment where investors are unprepared for shocks.

The current market regime lacks strong directional conviction. Growth impulses are too weak for a "risk-on" bull run but not weak enough for a "risk-off" recessionary scare. This middle ground, or "slowdown," leads to choppy price action and performance dispersion among assets.

A sharp, V-shaped rebound in corporate earnings revision breadth is a powerful but uncommon leading indicator. It suggests the private economy is decisively exiting an earnings recession and shifting into an early-cycle recovery, often before traditional economic data confirms the trend.