The mantra 'ideas are cheap' fails in the current AI paradigm. With 'scaling' as the dominant execution strategy, the industry has more companies than novel ideas. This makes truly new concepts, not just execution, the scarcest resource and the primary bottleneck for breakthrough progress.
Related Insights
While more data and compute yield linear improvements, true step-function advances in AI come from unpredictable algorithmic breakthroughs like Transformers. These creative ideas are the most difficult to innovate on and represent the highest-leverage, yet riskiest, area for investment and research focus.
With industry dominating large-scale compute, academia's function is no longer to train the biggest models. Instead, its value lies in pursuing unconventional, high-risk research in areas like new algorithms, architectures, and theoretical underpinnings that commercial labs, focused on scaling, might overlook.
With industry dominating large-scale model training, academia’s comparative advantage has shifted. Its focus should be on exploring high-risk, unconventional concepts like new algorithms and hardware-aligned architectures that commercial labs, focused on near-term ROI, cannot prioritize.
The era of advancing AI simply by scaling pre-training is ending due to data limits. The field is re-entering a research-heavy phase focused on novel, more efficient training paradigms beyond just adding more compute to existing recipes. The bottleneck is shifting from resources back to ideas.
Using AI for incremental efficiency gains (10% thinking) is becoming table stakes. True competitive advantage lies in 10X thinking: using AI to fundamentally reimagine your business model, services, and market approach. Companies that only optimize will be outmaneuvered by those that transform.
Most companies use AI for optimization—making existing processes faster and cheaper. The greater opportunity is innovation: using AI to create entirely new forms of value. This "10x thinking" is critical for growth, especially as pure efficiency gains will ultimately lead to a reduced need for human workers.
With industry dominating large-scale model training, academic labs can no longer compete on compute. Their new strategic advantage lies in pursuing unconventional, high-risk ideas, new algorithms, and theoretical underpinnings that large commercial labs might overlook.
True creative mastery emerges from an unpredictable human process. AI can generate options quickly but bypasses this journey, losing the potential for inexplicable, last-minute genius that defines truly great work. It optimizes for speed at the cost of brilliance.
Despite AI tools making it easier than ever to design, code, and launch applications, many people feel stuck and don't know what to build. This suggests a deficit in big-picture thinking and problem identification, not a lack of technical capability.
As AI makes it incredibly easy to build products, the market will be flooded with options. The critical, differentiating skill will no longer be technical execution but human judgment: deciding *what* should exist, which features matter, and the right distribution strategy. Synthesizing these elements is where future value lies.
