The current trend toward closed, proprietary AI systems is a misguided and ultimately ineffective strategy. Ideas and talent circulate regardless of corporate walls. True, defensible innovation is fostered by openness and the rapid exchange of research, not by secrecy.
The current AI boom isn't just another tech bubble; it's a "bubble with bigger variance." The potential for massive upswings is matched by the risk of equally significant downswings. Investors and founders must have an unusually high tolerance for risk and volatility to succeed.
For AI agents, the key vulnerability parallel to LLM hallucinations is impersonation. Malicious agents could pose as legitimate entities to take unauthorized actions, like infiltrating banking systems. This represents a critical, emerging security vector that security teams must anticipate.
Simply hiring superstar "Galacticos" is an ineffective team-building strategy. A successful AI team requires a deliberate mix of three archetypes: visionaries who set direction, rigorous executors who ship product, and social "glue" who maintain team cohesion and morale.
Data is becoming more expensive not from scarcity, but because the work has evolved. Simple labeling is over. Costs are now driven by the need for pricey domain experts for specialized data preparation and creative teams to build complex, synthetic environments for training agents.
In 10 years, AI will generate vast amounts of high-quality code, similar to the leap in image generation. The developer's role will shift from writing code to curation and design, exercising intent and critical judgment to select the best output from a sea of AI-generated options.
While more data and compute yield linear improvements, true step-function advances in AI come from unpredictable algorithmic breakthroughs like Transformers. These creative ideas are the most difficult to innovate on and represent the highest-leverage, yet riskiest, area for investment and research focus.
The best barometer for AI's enterprise value is not replacing the bottom 5% of workers. A better goal is empowering most employees to become 10x more productive. This reframes the AI conversation from a cost-cutting tool to a massive value-creation engine through human-AI partnership.