Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.
Related Insights
Founders who have truly 'found' demand can break free from copying other startups' playbooks. They can confidently deploy unique tactics in product or marketing that seem strange to outsiders but perfectly fit their specific, proprietary understanding of customer needs, leading to outsized success.
The most effective operating philosophy for an early-stage company is brutally simple. It dictates that all time and energy should be spent on only two activities: understanding what customers are trying to achieve (demand) and selling a solution that helps them, while ignoring all other distractions.
To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.
Instead of searching for a market to serve, founders should solve a problem they personally experience. This "bottom-up" approach guarantees product-market fit for at least one person—the founder—providing a solid foundation to build upon and avoiding the common failure of abstract, top-down market analysis.
This reframes the fundamental goal of a startup away from a supply-side focus (building) to a demand-side focus (discovery). The market's unmet need is the force that pulls a company and its product into existence, not the other way around.
For deep tech startups aiming for commercialization, validating market pull isn't a downstream activity—it's a prerequisite. Spending years in a lab without first identifying a specific customer group and the critical goal they are blocked from achieving is an enormous, avoidable risk.
Many marketers mistakenly start with the goal of creating a new category. However, a new category only emerges as a downstream consequence of a strong, existing demand that is poorly served by all current products. The demand must exist before a new category can be successfully established.
From the outside, a startup finding organic demand and one conjuring it can use identical tactics, like creating a new category or aggressive marketing. The key difference, invisible to observers, is whether these tactics respond to an existing customer pull or attempt to create one from nothing.
A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.
