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Steve Hilton's plan to stop film production from leaving California focuses on uncapping tax incentives, not just increasing them. This provides financial certainty for studios making long-term decisions, which is more valuable than a capped incentive that requires navigating a bureaucratic lottery.
To counter billionaires moving to low-tax states just before cashing out, Newsom supports federal legislation that would require them to pay taxes to the state where they accumulated their wealth. This prevents individuals from exploiting state infrastructure and then avoiding their tax obligations upon exit.
While simple, tax credits are a passive tool. Discretionary funding grants, like those in the CHIPS Act, allow government agencies to actively negotiate for specific strategic outcomes, such as compelling a company to build an extra fab or onshore a critical technology that a tax credit alone would not incentivize.
High costs and red tape have pushed film production out of Los Angeles. Ben Affleck suggests AI tools, like generating realistic backdrops, could reverse this trend. By enabling crews to shoot a North Pole scene in a local studio, AI reduces logistical expenses, potentially making Hollywood the central, cost-effective hub for talent and production again.
To manage AI's labor impact, former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo proposes a "grand bargain." This includes tax code reforms to reward companies that reinvest AI-driven savings into job creation, worker retention, and entry-level hiring, shifting focus from pure efficiency to opportunity.
Hollywood has been losing film productions to cheaper locations. AI-powered visual effects could slash costs by eliminating the need for on-location filming. This could make shooting in Los Angeles economically viable again, sparking a resurgence for the city as a production hub.
The potential acquisition of Warner Bros. by Paramount, backed by the power-seeking Ellison family, could paradoxically benefit Hollywood's workforce. An owner focused on ambition over immediate profits may ignite a spending war, forcing competitors to increase pay and boosting employment for writers, actors, and crew.
Media mogul Peter Chernan advised Spencer Pratt that a mayor's most effective lever for reviving Hollywood isn't chasing big studios, but creating a thriving ecosystem for independent filmmakers. This local-first approach can bring back jobs and creativity without relying on state-level tax policy.
Counter to the job-loss narrative, AI is enabling large-scale productions that would have otherwise been shelved due to prohibitive costs. By reducing budgets, AI allows ambitious films to get greenlit, thereby creating hundreds of jobs for projects that would have never existed.
Threatening to confiscate wealth from the most mobile people incentivizes them to leave. This capital flight has already begun in response to the proposal, proving such policies ultimately reduce the state's long-term tax revenue by driving away the very people they aim to tax.
David Ellison's threat to move the combined Paramount/WBD out of California is a strategic negotiation tactic ("brinksmanship"). While seemingly a bluff, it has teeth. His father moved Oracle, and companies can maintain studio lots in California while officially headquartering elsewhere, depriving the state of political leverage and investment.