The problem with a state-level asset tax is that wealthy individuals can simply move to another state. Proponents understand this, signaling that the ultimate goal is a federal asset tax. A national tax would be inescapable, as renouncing US citizenship comes with a prohibitive 45% exit tax on all assets.

A controversial feature of the proposed California billionaire tax is its retroactive application. The tax would affect anyone who was a billionaire resident at the start of the year, even if the law passes months later. This legal mechanism is designed to stop wealthy individuals from moving their assets out of state before the vote occurs.

California is on the verge of a massive tax revenue surge from upcoming IPOs of companies like SpaceX and OpenAI. However, a proposed wealth tax on illiquid assets is causing tech leaders to relocate, potentially costing the state the very economic boom it needs to balance its budget.

Founder Aaron Galperin moved from high-tax California to no-tax Texas specifically to avoid state income tax on his company's sale. This pre-exit relocation is a crucial, often overlooked financial strategy that significantly increases a founder's net take-home pay from a liquidity event.

A proposed wealth tax in California triggered a significant flight of capital and high-net-worth individuals, even without becoming law. The key factor was the failure of politicians to uniformly condemn the proposal, which was perceived as a threat to fundamental property rights, signaling a hostile business climate.

The mere proposal of a wealth tax, even before it passes, inflicts massive fiscal damage. Analysis by the Hoover Institution shows the threat alone led to high-earner exodus and faulty revenue projections, resulting in a net negative financial impact on the state.

Threatening to confiscate wealth from the most mobile people incentivizes them to leave. This capital flight has already begun in response to the proposal, proving such policies ultimately reduce the state's long-term tax revenue by driving away the very people they aim to tax.

The proposed wealth tax applies to illiquid assets. A founder of a highly-valued private AI startup could be deemed a 'billionaire' and face a massive tax bill on paper wealth, even if their company never exits or ultimately sells for a much lower price, creating a huge financial risk.

Newsom opposes a state-level wealth tax, citing the reality of capital flight where high-net-worth individuals simply move to other states. However, he strongly advocates for a federal wealth tax, along with changes to capital gains and inheritance laws, to prevent this "race to the bottom" between states.