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Initially, consulting firms will see a surge in business as corporations hire them to implement AI. However, this is a short-term boom. In the medium-term, the very AI they install will automate their own core functions, leading to their eventual disruption.
Widespread AI-driven job loss will reduce consumer spending. In response, businesses will be forced to cut costs further by accelerating AI adoption, which in turn leads to more job losses and even lower consumption, creating a vicious cycle.
The future consulting model may flip traditional roles. Instead of hiring firms for primary analysis, organizations could develop their own 'agentic AI' for strategy creation and use external human experts simply to validate the AI's output, relegating consultants to a secondary role.
Vinod Khosla warns that AI will decimate the traditional business process outsourcing and IT services sectors, which are foundational to India's economy. Incumbent firms face extinction unless they radically reinvent their business models.
For current AI valuations to be realized, AI must deliver unprecedented efficiency, likely causing mass job displacement. This would disrupt the consumer economy that supports these companies, creating a fundamental contradiction where the condition for success undermines the system itself.
Tech leaders cite Jevon's Paradox, suggesting AI efficiency will create more jobs. However, this historical model may not hold, as the speed of AI disruption outpaces society's ability to adapt, and demand for knowledge work isn't infinitely elastic.
The fundamental economic shift is not just job automation but an inversion of roles. AI, as pure intelligence, will become the employer, hiring humans as contractors for physical tasks it cannot perform, like visiting a warehouse or collecting brochures. Intelligence becomes a cloud commodity, while physical presence becomes the service.
The fear that AI will eliminate jobs in fields like law is misplaced. While it automates low-level tasks, it also enables clients to grow faster and create more complex products. This generates a new wave of demand for high-level advisory on emerging issues like AI risk and global regulations.
While AI-driven efficiency is an obvious first step, it often results in workforce reduction if company growth is flat. True differentiation and sustainable advantage come from using AI for innovation—creating new products, markets, and business models to fuel growth.
Industries with fixed demand (accounting) will see job losses as AI handles the necessary workload. Sectors with expandable demand (software engineering) may absorb AI's productivity gains by creating vastly more output, thus preserving jobs for a longer period.
The CEO of Amplitude predicts AI will eliminate jobs based on specialized, niche knowledge (e.g., writing an earnings script). The most valuable employees will be high-agency generalists who can leverage AI across functions, forcing designers to ship code and marketers to automate campaigns.