As AI automates entry-level white-collar jobs, a growing number of college graduates will face unemployment. This creates what historian Peter Turchin calls 'elite overproduction'—people educated for elite roles with no positions to fill. This disenfranchised group is a prime demographic for socialist movements.

Tocqueville warned that if a new, permanent aristocracy were to arise in America, it would come from its industrialists. This foresight is now reflected in the immense wealth and political influence of the modern billionaire class, whose power rivals that of historical aristocrats and challenges democratic equality.

When a society produces more highly-educated people than there are elite jobs, this class creates unnecessary bureaucratic roles to sustain itself. This administrative layer becomes a tumor, feeding on the working class and hindering economic productivity under the guise of helping.

History shows that social stability is threatened not by the long-suffering poor, but by a disgruntled, overeducated middle class. AI's displacement of junior roles in tech and law creates a cohort of indebted graduates who played by the rules but now face unemployment. This group is far more likely to cause political and social unrest.

Historian Peter Turchin argues that when a society creates more credentialed elites than it can place in high-status roles, the disillusioned group forms a "counter-elite." This faction then uses its skills to challenge and destabilize the very system that it feels betrayed by, potentially leading to revolution.

When society pushes more people into higher education for roles the market doesn't demand, it creates "overproduced elites." This leads to a class of resentful, highly-educated but under-employed people—a historical precursor to social and political instability like the French Revolution.

The 'overproduction of elites' theory suggests that societal unrest is driven not by those truly suffering, but by highly educated individuals who feel the system has denied them the power and status they deserve. Their personal frustration, not objective hardship, fuels their desire to dismantle the establishment.

When society produces more highly-educated graduates than there are suitable jobs, a large group emerges whose high expectations are unmet. This "elite overproduction" creates a sense of grievance and entitlement, making them receptive to socialist ideas that promise to rectify perceived injustices.

Daron Acemoglu redefines the "working class" for the post-industrial economy. It's not limited to manufacturing but encompasses the vast majority who derive their income from the labor market, including a diverse range of skills from manual trades to tenured professors.