As AI automates entry-level white-collar jobs, a growing number of college graduates will face unemployment. This creates what historian Peter Turchin calls 'elite overproduction'—people educated for elite roles with no positions to fill. This disenfranchised group is a prime demographic for socialist movements.

Widespread suffering alone doesn't trigger a revolution. Historically, successful uprisings require a politically savvy, well-organized group with a clear agenda and influential leadership. Disparate and unorganized populations, no matter how desperate, tend to see their energy dissipate without causing systemic change.

The French Revolution wasn't a workers' uprising but was led by an 'overproduction of elites'—educated individuals who felt entitled to high-status jobs they couldn't get. This suggests social upheaval is often driven by downwardly mobile, educated classes whose expectations are unmet.

History shows that social stability is threatened not by the long-suffering poor, but by a disgruntled, overeducated middle class. AI's displacement of junior roles in tech and law creates a cohort of indebted graduates who played by the rules but now face unemployment. This group is far more likely to cause political and social unrest.

Pro-socialist views among millennials can be understood as a logical reaction to a "broken generational compact." When economic realities like crushing student debt and unaffordable housing prevent a generation from accumulating capital and gaining a stake in the system, they are naturally inclined to question or reject that system.

When society pushes more people into higher education for roles the market doesn't demand, it creates "overproduced elites." This leads to a class of resentful, highly-educated but under-employed people—a historical precursor to social and political instability like the French Revolution.

When society produces more highly-educated graduates than there are suitable jobs, a large group emerges whose high expectations are unmet. This "elite overproduction" creates a sense of grievance and entitlement, making them receptive to socialist ideas that promise to rectify perceived injustices.

Throughout history, a large gap between the 'haves' and 'have-nots' is a recipe for revolution. This economic disparity fuels populism and social unrest more profoundly and consistently than external shocks like pandemics, technological disruption like AI, or even war.

Extreme inequality and inflation, driven by debt and money printing, create widespread frustration. This frustration "summons" populist figures like Trump, who are seen as chaos agents to disrupt a rigged system, rather than being the root cause of the political anger themselves.