OpenAI plans to demand revenue shares from drugs developed using its AI and a cut of e-commerce transactions. This transforms its business model from a simple per-token utility into a complex, risk-involved partner in multiple industries, akin to a venture firm.
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OpenAI's strategy involves getting partners like Oracle and Microsoft to bear the immense balance sheet risk of building data centers and securing chips. OpenAI provides the demand catalyst but avoids the fixed asset downside, positioning itself to capture the majority of the upside while its partners become commodity compute providers.
By structuring massive, multi-billion dollar deals, OpenAI is deliberately entangling partners like NVIDIA and Oracle in its ecosystem. Their revenue and stock prices become directly tied to OpenAI's continued spending, creating a powerful coalition with a vested interest in ensuring OpenAI's survival and growth, effectively making it too interconnected to fail.
OpenAI’s complex conversion from a nonprofit to a for-profit benefit corporation, modeled after Mozilla's legal structure, was a strategic necessity. This allows it to operate like a for-profit entity, unlocking massive investments from partners like SoftBank, while navigating the complex tax and governance rules governing its nonprofit origins.
Since ChatGPT's launch, OpenAI's core mission has shifted from pure research to consumer product growth. Its focus is now on retaining ChatGPT users and managing costs via vertical integration, while the "race to AGI" narrative serves primarily to attract investors and talent.
The partnership where OpenAI becomes an equity holder in Thrive Holdings suggests a new go-to-market model. Instead of tech firms pushing general AI 'outside-in,' this 'inside-out' approach embeds AI development within established industry operators to build, test, and improve domain-specific models with real-world feedback loops.
By integrating shopping into ChatGPT, OpenAI can become a massive e-commerce engine. With a potential take rate of 15-30%, similar to Amazon or Meta, capturing just 20% of the $1.2T U.S. e-commerce market would generate tens of billions in new, high-margin revenue.
OpenAI's path to profitability isn't just selling subscriptions. The strategy is to create a "team of helpers" within ChatGPT to replace expensive human services. The bet is that users will pay significantly for an AI that can act as their personal shopper, travel agent, and financial advisor, unlocking massive new markets.
With partners like Microsoft and Nvidia reaching multi-trillion-dollar valuations from AI infrastructure, OpenAI is signaling a move up the stack. By aiming to build its own "AI Cloud," OpenAI plans to transition from an API provider to a full-fledged platform, directly capturing value it currently creates for others.
With model improvements showing diminishing returns and competitors like Google achieving parity, OpenAI is shifting focus to enterprise applications. The strategic battleground is moving from foundational model superiority to practical, valuable productization for businesses.
The long-term monetization model for consumer LLMs is unlikely to be paid subscriptions. Instead, the market will probably shift toward free, ad- and commerce-supported models. OpenAI's challenge is to build these complex new revenue streams before its current subscription growth inevitably slows.
