By integrating shopping into ChatGPT, OpenAI can become a massive e-commerce engine. With a potential take rate of 15-30%, similar to Amazon or Meta, capturing just 20% of the $1.2T U.S. e-commerce market would generate tens of billions in new, high-margin revenue.

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Anticipating a shift to "agentic commerce," SharkNinja is actively re-optimizing its e-commerce site for Large Language Models. The company believes what drives human conversion today may not rank highest in AI-driven search and expects commerce via AI platforms to be meaningful by Christmas 2025.

OpenAI's revenue projection of growing from $10 billion to $100 billion in three years is historically unprecedented. For comparison, it took established tech giants like NVIDIA, Meta, and Google between six to ten years to achieve the same growth milestone, highlighting the extreme velocity expected in the AI market.

For OpenAI's commerce features to succeed, it's not enough to build one-click checkout. They must fundamentally retrain hundreds of millions of users to trust a new purchasing workflow inside a chatbot, breaking deeply ingrained habits of searching on ChatGPT then buying on Google or Amazon.

Agentic commerce isn't just a substitute for existing online shopping. It can unlock new spending from high-income individuals whose primary barrier to consumption is time, not money. By automating purchasing, agents reduce this "time cost of consumption," potentially adding new, incremental dollars to the economy.

OpenAI's path to profitability isn't just selling subscriptions. The strategy is to create a "team of helpers" within ChatGPT to replace expensive human services. The bet is that users will pay significantly for an AI that can act as their personal shopper, travel agent, and financial advisor, unlocking massive new markets.

Amazon's potential commerce partnership with OpenAI is fraught with risk. Allowing ChatGPT to become the starting point for product searches threatens Amazon's highly profitable on-site advertising revenue, even if Amazon gains referral traffic. It's a classic battle to avoid being aggregated by another platform.

Amazon has attached a specific, massive financial value to its AI assistant, Rufus. It's projected to generate over $10 billion in new sales annually by increasing conversion rates by 60%, proving the immediate and substantial ROI of embedding AI into the e-commerce customer journey.

OpenAI's partnership with Stripe to enable in-app purchases transforms ChatGPT from an information tool into a transactional platform. This creates a frictionless sales channel for e-commerce brands, directly challenging Google's established search-to-purchase business model.

The long-term monetization model for consumer LLMs is unlikely to be paid subscriptions. Instead, the market will probably shift toward free, ad- and commerce-supported models. OpenAI's challenge is to build these complex new revenue streams before its current subscription growth inevitably slows.

While a commerce partnership with OpenAI seems logical, Amazon is hesitant. They recognize that if consumers start product searches on ChatGPT, it could disintermediate Amazon's on-site search, cannibalizing their high-margin advertising revenue and ceding aggregator power.