Data is becoming more expensive not from scarcity, but because the work has evolved. Simple labeling is over. Costs are now driven by the need for pricey domain experts for specialized data preparation and creative teams to build complex, synthetic environments for training agents.

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AI startup Mercore's valuation quintupled to $10B by connecting AI labs with domain experts to train models. This reveals that the most critical bottleneck for advanced AI is not just data or compute, but reinforcement learning from highly skilled human feedback, creating a new "RL economy."

Early AI training involved simple preference tasks. Now, training frontier models requires PhDs and top professionals to perform complex, hours-long tasks like building entire websites or explaining nuanced cancer topics. The demand is for deep, specialized expertise, not just generalist labor.

LLMs have hit a wall by scraping nearly all available public data. The next phase of AI development and competitive differentiation will come from training models on high-quality, proprietary data generated by human experts. This creates a booming "data as a service" industry for companies like Micro One that recruit and manage these experts.

The era of advancing AI simply by scaling pre-training is ending due to data limits. The field is re-entering a research-heavy phase focused on novel, more efficient training paradigms beyond just adding more compute to existing recipes. The bottleneck is shifting from resources back to ideas.

For years, access to compute was the primary bottleneck in AI development. Now, as public web data is largely exhausted, the limiting factor is access to high-quality, proprietary data from enterprises and human experts. This shifts the focus from building massive infrastructure to forming data partnerships and expertise.

Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are spending billions creating simulated enterprise apps (RL gyms) where human experts train AI models on complex tasks. This has created a new, rapidly growing "AI trainer" job category, but its ultimate purpose is to automate those same expert roles.

A niche, services-heavy market has emerged where startups build bespoke, high-fidelity simulation environments for large AI labs. These deals command at least seven-figure price tags and are critical for training next-generation agentic models, despite the customer base being only a few major labs.

The value in AI services has shifted from labeling simple data to generating complex, workflow-specific data for agentic AI. This requires research DNA and real-world enterprise deployment—a model Turing calls a "research accelerator," not a data labeling company.

Mercore's $500M revenue in 17 months highlights a shift in AI training. The focus is moving from low-paid data labelers to a marketplace of elite experts like doctors and lawyers providing high-quality, nuanced data. This creates a new, lucrative gig economy for top-tier professionals.

Contrary to the belief that distribution is the new moat, the crucial differentiator in AI is talent. Building a truly exceptional AI product is incredibly nuanced and complex, requiring a rare skill set. The scarcity of people who can build off models in an intelligent, tasteful way is the real technological moat, not just access to data or customers.