Drawing on Frédéric Bastiat's "seen and unseen" principle, AI doomerism is a classic economic fallacy. It focuses on tangible job displacement ("the seen") while completely missing the new industries, roles, and creative potential that technology inevitably unlocks ("the unseen"), a pattern repeated throughout history.

Unlike previous technologies that augmented specific skills, AI could eventually outperform humans in all domains, including creative and emotional tasks. This suggests the historical pattern of technology creating more jobs than it destroys may not hold true.

Major tech shifts don't immediately destroy jobs. First, they create a "recruiting cycle" with high demand for labor to build the new infrastructure (e.g., car factories). These new, higher-paying jobs attract workers from old industries before those legacy sectors eventually decline.

While AI will eliminate jobs, it simultaneously creates the largest financial opportunity for the under-25 generation in history, bigger than the internet. It is a tidal wave that young, adaptable individuals are best positioned to ride, while older professionals may struggle to pivot.

Tech leaders cite Jevon's Paradox, suggesting AI efficiency will create more jobs. However, this historical model may not hold, as the speed of AI disruption outpaces society's ability to adapt, and demand for knowledge work isn't infinitely elastic.

AI's impact on labor will likely follow a deceptive curve: an initial boost in productivity as it augments human workers, followed by a crash as it masters their domains and replaces them entirely. This creates a false sense of security, delaying necessary policy responses.

Political demands that new technology must benefit the specific workers it replaces are fundamentally flawed. This logic ignores progress. The goal shouldn't be to preserve obsolete jobs but to ensure technology benefits civilization as a whole by creating abundance while managing the difficult labor transition.

Historically, technological advancements primarily displaced blue-collar workers first. The current AI revolution is unique because its most immediate and realized disruptions are targeting white-collar, knowledge-based roles, breaking a long-standing pattern of technological impact on the labor market.

Historically, economic downturns accelerate technological displacement. During a recession, companies lay off workers and then use the subsequent recovery to evaluate how many roles can be permanently replaced by new technology like AI. The next recession could therefore trigger a significant wave of structural unemployment.