The goal for a majority-EV fleet is not viable with current technology. The material requirements for batteries and components are so vast that a US-only transition would consume every scrap of lithium, copper, graphite, and other key minerals produced globally, leaving none for any other country or industry.

The next major bottleneck for AI, electrification, and defense is not chips, but copper. To meet baseline GDP growth projections—excluding upside from data centers and green energy—the world needs to mine the same amount of copper in the next 18 years as it has in all of human history.

China's dominance in clean energy technology presents a deep paradox: it is funded by fossil fuels. Manufacturing solar panels, batteries, and EVs is incredibly energy-intensive. To meet this demand, China is increasing its coal imports and consumption, simultaneously positioning itself as a climate 'saint' for its green exports and a 'sinner' for its production methods.

Nations are incentivized to reduce oil dependence by adopting EVs. However, to ensure grid stability and affordability during the crisis, they are also turning to reliable, carbon-intensive coal power, creating a dynamic where electrification rises but so do emissions.

Even before the AI boom, demand for copper was outstripping supply for standard manufacturing and electrification. The addition of massive data centers and EVs creates a long-term supply deficit that is nearly impossible to solve, as bringing new mines online can take over 15 years.

To sustain 3% global GDP growth, the world must mine as much copper in the next 18 years as it has in the last 10,000. This excludes the massive additional demand from the energy transition, data centers, and AI, making the supply challenge almost insurmountable.

The idea that we only need political will to deploy existing climate tech is flawed. While solar and EVs are viable, critical, high-emission sectors like concrete, steel, aviation, and shipping do not yet have commercially scalable green technologies.

Despite the narrative of a transition to clean energy, renewables like wind and solar are supplementing, not replacing, traditional sources. Hydrocarbons' share of global energy has barely decreased, challenging the feasibility of net-zero goals and highlighting the sheer scale of global energy demand.

Aging flagship mines, like Chile's Escondida, face declining ore grades. This forces them to process more rock, which is also harder, exponentially increasing energy and water consumption just to produce less copper. Billions are being invested simply to manage the decline.