Despite the narrative of a transition to clean energy, renewables like wind and solar are supplementing, not replacing, traditional sources. Hydrocarbons' share of global energy has barely decreased, challenging the feasibility of net-zero goals and highlighting the sheer scale of global energy demand.
The massive electricity demand from AI data centers is creating an urgent need for reliable power. This has caused a surge in demand for natural gas turbines—a market considered dead just years ago—as renewables alone cannot meet the new load.
The oil industry's boom-bust cycle is self-perpetuating. Low prices cause companies to slash investment and lead to a talent drain as workers leave the volatile sector. This underinvestment, combined with natural production declines, inevitably leads to tighter markets and price spikes years later.
Charts showing plummeting solar and wind production costs are misleading. These technologies often remain uncompetitive without significant government subsidies. Furthermore, the high cost of grid connection and ensuring system reliability means their true all-in expense is far greater than component costs suggest.
Facing immense electricity needs for AI, tech giants like Amazon are now directly investing in nuclear power, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs). This infusion of venture capital is revitalizing a sector that has historically relied on slow-moving government funding, imbuing it with a Silicon Valley spirit.
Europe faces a critical conflict between its ambitious net-zero targets and its economic health. High energy costs and a heavy regulatory burden, designed without market realities in mind, are causing companies to close facilities or move investment to the U.S., forcing a difficult reassessment.
In 2013, long before the Ukraine invasion, Putin publicly railed against U.S. shale gas. He presciently saw that it would eventually be exported as LNG, undermining the influence of Russia's state-owned Gazprom and eroding his energy leverage over Europe, a fear that has since been realized.