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Counterintuitively, AI tools that make software engineering more efficient are increasing the demand for engineers. By lowering the cost of development (Jevons Paradox), AI is unlocking latent demand from non-tech industries that previously couldn't afford a large engineering workforce.
Contrary to fears of job replacement, AI coding systems expand what software can achieve, fueling a surge in project complexity and ambition. This trend increases the overall volume of code and the need for high-level human oversight, resulting in continued growth for developer roles rather than a reduction.
Contrary to the job loss narrative, AI will increase demand for knowledge workers. By drastically lowering the cost of their output (like code or medical scans), AI expands the number of use cases and total market demand, creating more jobs for humans to prompt, interpret, and validate the AI's work.
Increased developer productivity from AI won't lead to fewer jobs. Instead, it mirrors the Jevons paradox seen with electricity: as building software becomes cheaper and faster, the demand for it will dramatically increase. This boosts investment in new projects and ultimately grows the entire software engineering industry.
AI makes tasks cheaper and faster. This increased efficiency doesn't reduce the need for workers; instead, it increases the demand for their work, as companies can now afford to do more of it. This creates a positive feedback loop that may lead to more hiring, not less.
AI lowers the economic bar for building software, increasing the total market for development. Companies will need more high-leverage engineers to compete, creating a schism between those who adopt AI tools and those who fall behind and become obsolete.
Automating coding tasks won't eliminate engineers. Similar to the shift from assembly to higher-level languages, AI tools increase output potential, leading to an explosion in demand for software and the builders who can leverage these powerful new platforms.
Jevons Paradox states that as a resource becomes more efficient, consumption increases. Applied to AI, making software development faster won't eliminate developer jobs. Instead, it will create a surge in demand by enabling new applications like internal tools and personal apps.
AI coding tools democratize development, making simple 'coding' obsolete. However, this expands the amount of software created, which in turn increases the need for sophisticated 'engineering' to manage new layers of complexity and operations. The field gets bigger, not smaller.
The Jevons Paradox observes that technologies increasing efficiency often boost consumption rather than reduce it. Applied to AI, this means while some jobs will be automated, the increased productivity will likely expand the scope and volume of work, creating new roles, much like typewriters ultimately increased secretarial work.
Mike Cannon-Brookes argues that AI makes developers more efficient, but since the demand for new technology is effectively unlimited, companies will simply build more. This will lead to a net increase in hiring for engineering talent, not a reduction.