Contrary to the trend of specialized 'monoline' companies, Aviva's CEO asserts that diversification offers significant capital benefits. It also allows for the efficient scaling of major investments, like generative AI, across numerous product lines—a strategy that has proven more resilient and successful over the last five years.
Because boards lack deep expertise in AI's seismic impact, they are pursuing scale-driven M&A. The goal is to accumulate diverse assets ('cards in a deck') to maintain flexibility and strategic options in an unpredictable, AI-driven future, rather than making specific bets on the technology itself.
With no single market over 25% of sales, Amphenol's diversification acts as a shock absorber during specific industry downturns. Offensively, this breadth ensures it always has exposure to the world's most significant growth trends, whether it's aerospace, EVs, or AI data centers.
Counter to the "niche down" mantra, Missive's horizontal approach became a key strength. With their largest customer segment representing only 6% of revenue, they are highly insulated from industry-specific downturns. This broad, long-tail customer base provides a stable and defensible foundation.
The key to effective portfolio entrepreneurship isn't random diversification. It's about serving the same customer segment across multiple products. This creates a cohesive ecosystem where each new offering benefits from compounding knowledge and trust, making many things feel like one thing.
The increased volatility and shorter defensibility windows in the AI era challenge traditional VC portfolio construction. The logical response to this heightened risk is greater diversification. This implies that early-stage funds may need to be larger to support more investments or write smaller checks into more companies.
Blanc's successful turnaround of Aviva began by divesting eight businesses where they lacked a top-three market position. This freed up capital, reduced debt, and allowed the core, high-scale operations in the UK, Ireland, and Canada to shine, proving that focused scale beats broad but shallow market presence.
While culturally challenging, leading Aviva's turnaround during COVID proved beneficial for execution. The remote setup was a 'blessing' that eliminated travel and streamlined meetings, enabling leadership to focus intensely and accelerate major decisions, such as divesting multiple businesses, far more quickly than would have been possible otherwise.
Industry specialists can become trapped in an "echo chamber," making them resistant to paradigm shifts. WCM found their generalist team structure was an advantage, as a lack of "scar tissue" and a broader perspective allowed them to identify changes that entrenched specialists dismissed as temporary noise.
Conventional venture capital wisdom of 'winner-take-all' may not apply to AI applications. The market is expanding so rapidly that it can sustain multiple, fast-growing, highly valuable companies, each capturing a significant niche. For VCs, this means huge returns don't necessarily require backing a monopoly.
Investor Mark Ein argues against sector-specific focus, viewing his broad portfolio (prop tech, sports, etc.) as a key advantage. It enables him to transfer insights and best practices from one industry to another, uncovering opportunities that specialists might miss.