Ghana's stability in a volatile region may not stem from strong governance but from an unspoken agreement with jihadist groups. They reportedly use Ghana as a market for resources like fuel and a safe place for their families, choosing not to attack a country that serves their logistical needs, creating a precarious peace.
Data reveals an "inverted U-shape" for political and economic stability. Both strong democracies and full autocracies are relatively stable. The most dangerous and volatile environment for business and society is the “anocracy” in the middle, which suffers from lower growth, lower investment, and higher rates of violence.
Official fatality counts rely on media reports, which are sparse in conflict zones with poor telecommunications. This leads to severe underreporting of deaths and creates absurd data artifacts where stable countries can appear more dangerous than war-torn nations.
Non-governmental organizations, originally for relief and charity, were co-opted by intelligence agencies for statecraft. Their philanthropic cover provides deniability for covert operations like running supplies, money, and guns, making them effective fronts for what the speaker terms 'the dirtiest deeds.'
Contrary to historical trends, policymakers in key African nations are demonstrating a sustained commitment to economic reforms. This resilience, forged by recent global shocks, is signaling to investors that current reform paths are more enduring, reducing perceived political risk and increasing interest in the region's sovereigns.
The only historically effective method to resolve deep-rooted religious and ideological conflicts is to shift focus toward shared economic prosperity. Alliances like the Abraham Accords create tangible incentives for peace that ideology alone cannot, by making life demonstrably better for citizens.
The Maduro regime is not just a corrupt petrostate; it is a diversified criminal enterprise. It has expanded into drug trafficking, gold smuggling, and human trafficking, turning Venezuela into a safe haven for global criminal networks, terrorist groups, and adversaries like Russia and Iran.
Unlike its neighbors, Ghana's "entrenched duopoly" of two hyper-competitive political parties provides a non-violent outlet for youth discontent. This political structure channels the frustrations of marginalized young people, even in poorer regions, into voting and party activism rather than recruitment by violent extremist groups.
US agencies and linked NGOs actively recruit from marginalized and radicalized populations. These individuals' higher risk tolerance and perceived grievances make them ideal "frontline muscle" for instigating street protests and revolutions, as they are often more willing to get arrested and create disruption.
Geopolitical solutions based on earthly incentives like economic development are bound to fail when dealing with an ideology focused on martyrdom. If people believe the ultimate goal is paradise after death, they won't compromise for a better life for their children now.
A CIA task force analyzed 38 variables to predict political instability, including common assumptions like poverty and inequality. They found only two were highly predictive: 1) a country being a partial democracy, or “anocracy,” and 2) its political parties organizing around identity (race, religion) rather than ideology.