Data reveals an "inverted U-shape" for political and economic stability. Both strong democracies and full autocracies are relatively stable. The most dangerous and volatile environment for business and society is the “anocracy” in the middle, which suffers from lower growth, lower investment, and higher rates of violence.

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Political violence and extreme polarization are symptoms of deeper economic anxieties. When people feel economically insecure, they retreat into tribal identities and become susceptible to narratives of anger, which can escalate into violence.

Instead of incremental shifts around a moderate center (e.g., between 4 and 6 on a dial), US policy now swings violently between ideological extremes (3 and 9). This dynamic makes stable, consensus-based governance on issues like immigration nearly impossible.

Business leaders may see short-term benefits in aligning with an aspiring autocrat. However, this alliance is temporary. In Hungary, 15 years after Viktor Orbán took power, only 23% of the country's 50 wealthiest people remained on the list, as the regime moved to consolidate power by bankrupting or eliminating rivals.

Once a country falls into the unstable “anocracy” zone, its chances of recovery are slim, with only 20% returning to a full democracy. Data shows this reversal, or "U-turn," must happen quickly, typically within a single electoral cycle of five to eight years. The longer a nation lingers, the harder it is to escape.

America's governing system was intentionally designed for messy debate among multiple factions. This constant disagreement is not a flaw but a feature that prevents any single group from gaining absolute power. This principle applies to organizations: fostering dissent and requiring compromise leads to more resilient and balanced outcomes.

Economic uncertainty and anxiety are the root causes of political violence. When governments devalue currency through inflation and amass huge debts, they create the stressful conditions that history shows consistently lead to civil unrest.

In times of extreme polarization, the political middle is not a safe haven but a kill zone. Moderates are targeted by both sides because they have no tribe to defend them. The escalating cost of neutrality forces everyone to pick a side, eliminating compromise and accelerating conflict.

A CIA task force analyzed 38 variables to predict political instability, including common assumptions like poverty and inequality. They found only two were highly predictive: 1) a country being a partial democracy, or “anocracy,” and 2) its political parties organizing around identity (race, religion) rather than ideology.

The US was structured as a republic, not a pure democracy, to protect minority rights from being overridden by the majority. Mechanisms like the Electoral College, appointed senators, and constitutional limits on federal power were intentionally undemocratic to prevent what the founders called "mobocracy."

Political violence and societal decay are not random events but predictable outcomes of economic desperation. By analyzing quantifiable data like debt-to-GDP ratios on a spreadsheet, one can forecast these outcomes with high accuracy. Because the problem is knowable and data-driven, it is also avoidable.

Political Instability Peaks in 'Partial Democracies,' Not Full Autocracies | RiffOn