Despite new US sanctions on Russian oil producers, Goldman Sachs remains bearish, forecasting a decline. They argue that spare capacity from OPEC, exemptions for buyers, and the reorganization of trade networks will mitigate any supply disruption, preventing a sustained price spike and leading to lower prices by 2026.
The sustained rise in gold prices is primarily due to strategic, long-term buying by central banks, not short-term speculation. Goldman Sachs sees significant further upside potential, which is not yet priced in, from large private institutions like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds eventually adding gold as a strategic asset.
Silver's investment case is structurally weaker and more volatile than gold's. It lacks a 'central bank anchor' to stabilize its price, operates in a much smaller and less liquid market, and is prone to technical dislocations like physical shortages in a specific location, such as the recent 'London squeeze'.
The strategic value of commodities in a modern portfolio has shifted from generating returns to providing a crucial hedge against two growing threats. These are unsustainable fiscal policies that weaken currencies ('debasement risk') and the increasing use of commodities as geopolitical weapons that cause supply disruptions.
Direct investment in rare earth commodities is impractical for Western investors as they trade on Chinese exchanges. The primary way to gain exposure is through the equities of Western mining and refining companies, which are highly volatile and sensitive to US-China geopolitical headlines rather than underlying commodity prices.