Some business ideas, like a "what's on campus" app or a universal group organizing tool, seem obvious yet consistently fail. These are "mirage opportunities" where a fundamental assumption about user behavior is flawed. If many have tried and failed, it's a signal to stay away.

Companies often focus on avoiding fines by being overly cautious with data, a practice called "under-permissioning." This creates a huge opportunity cost by shrinking the marketable audience and leading to wasted ad spend on generalized campaigns.

The slow growth of public SaaS isn't just an execution failure; it's a structural problem. We created so many VC-backed companies that markets became saturated, blocking adjacent expansion opportunities and creating a 'Total Addressable Market (TAM) trap'.

There appears to be a predictable 5-10 year lag between a startup's innovation gaining traction (e.g., Calendly) and a tech giant commoditizing it as a feature (e.g., Google Calendar's scheduling). This "commoditization window" is the crucial timeframe for a startup to build a brand, network effects, and a durable moat.

While you don't need to be a parent to start a family-focused business, you must compensate for this blind spot. An investor would scrutinize a non-parent founder's early hires to ensure parents are on the team and have direct access and influence over key decisions.

Large platforms focus on massive opportunities right in front of them ('gold bricks at their feet'). They consciously ignore even valuable markets that require more effort ('gold bricks 100 feet away'). This strategic neglect creates defensible spaces for startups in those niche areas.

The belief that you must find an untapped, 'blue ocean' market is a fallacy. In a connected world, every opportunity is visible and becomes saturated quickly. Instead of looking for a secret angle, focus on self-awareness and superior execution within an existing market.

Club Penguin's founders lived by a simple rule: 'If it doesn't matter to an eight-year-old, it doesn't matter.' This filter forced them to reject prestigious but irrelevant opportunities like speaking at certain conferences, keeping them focused on their true customers: kids and their parents.

Seeing an existing successful business is validation, not a deterrent. By copying their current model, you start where they are today, bypassing their years of risky experimentation and learning. The market is large enough for multiple winners.