Recent election results reveal two distinct Americas defined by age. Younger voters are overwhelmingly rejecting the political establishment, feeling that policies created by and for older generations have left them with a diminished version of the country. This generational gap now supersedes many traditional political alignments.
In a 2020 email, Thiel argued that high student debt and unaffordable housing would leave millennials with no stake in the capitalist system, inevitably causing them to turn against it. This prediction highlights the economic roots of modern political shifts among younger generations.
Unlike previous generations who grew up believing liberal democracy was the final political form, Gen Z entered a world with no clear answers. This void, combined with infinite internet access, fueled a competitive explosion of fringe ideologies as they searched for new models.
Economic policies benefiting older, asset-owning generations at the expense of younger ones are reshaping politics. The traditional left-right divide is becoming less relevant than the conflict between classes, which is highly correlated with age, creating unusual political alliances between formerly opposed groups.
The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.
The growing appeal of socialism among the young is attributed to a "broken generational compact." As Peter Thiel predicted, when young people face crushing student debt and no path to homeownership, they lack a stake in the capitalist system and are more likely to turn against it, fueling movements like the one that elected a socialist mayor in NYC.
A key driver of Trump's electoral shift was a coalition of two groups: young men under 30 and women aged 45-64. The thesis is that mothers, seeing their sons struggling economically and socially, voted for radical change out of desperation. For them, a system shake-up was more important than specific policies on issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.
Pro-socialist views among millennials can be understood as a logical reaction to a "broken generational compact." When economic realities like crushing student debt and unaffordable housing prevent a generation from accumulating capital and gaining a stake in the system, they are naturally inclined to question or reject that system.
A deep distrust of the bipartisan "neoliberal consensus" has made many young people receptive to any counter-narrative, whether from the left or right. This creates a powerful anti-establishment bloc that finds common ground in opposing the status quo, explaining the crossover appeal of populist figures.
Unlike previous generations engaged in culture wars, Gen Z's primary political motivation is economic stability. They are less interested in ideological battles and more focused on tangible issues like homeownership, affordability, and securing a financial future.
A key demographic shift towards Trump was 45-64 year old women. The theory posits these mothers, seeing their sons struggling, voted for radical change, prioritizing their sons' futures over issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.