A key driver of Trump's electoral shift was a coalition of two groups: young men under 30 and women aged 45-64. The thesis is that mothers, seeing their sons struggling economically and socially, voted for radical change out of desperation. For them, a system shake-up was more important than specific policies on issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.
When the economic system, particularly the housing market, makes it impossible for the youth to get ahead, it guarantees the rise of populism. Desperation leads them to vote for any promise of change, however destructive, such as socialist policies that ultimately collapse the economy.
Economic policies benefiting older, asset-owning generations at the expense of younger ones are reshaping politics. The traditional left-right divide is becoming less relevant than the conflict between classes, which is highly correlated with age, creating unusual political alliances between formerly opposed groups.
Scott Galloway argues the far right recognized the crisis facing young men before the left. While their solutions were regressive—blaming women and minorities—their early diagnosis of the problem created a political vacuum they successfully filled, attracting a disenchanted male demographic.
Galloway posits that a significant political shift from blue to red occurred among women aged 45-64. He theorizes this is driven by mothers voting for the perceived best interest of their struggling sons or husbands, prioritizing disruptive change over other issues when their family isn't thriving.
A deep distrust of the bipartisan "neoliberal consensus" has made many young people receptive to any counter-narrative, whether from the left or right. This creates a powerful anti-establishment bloc that finds common ground in opposing the status quo, explaining the crossover appeal of populist figures.
The struggles and pathologies seen in young men are not just an isolated gender issue. They are a leading indicator that the broader societal belief in upward mobility—'we can all do well'—is eroding. This group is the first to react when reliable paths to success seem blocked.
The crisis facing young men is fundamentally economic. Their declining viability as providers prevents family formation, a cornerstone of societal stability. This economic frustration leads to anger and radicalization, making the "lonely, broke young man" a uniquely destabilizing force in society.
A key part of Trump's strategy was ignoring traditional media outlets and instead appearing on podcasts and platforms popular with young men (Joe Rogan, World Wrestling Federation). This allowed him to directly tap into their grievances and build a loyal base that felt seen.
Political alignment is becoming secondary to economic frustration. Voters are responding to candidates who address rising costs, creating unpredictable alliances and fracturing established bases. This dynamic is swamping traditional ideology, forcing both parties to scramble for a new populist message centered on financial well-being.
A key demographic shift towards Trump was 45-64 year old women. The theory posits these mothers, seeing their sons struggling, voted for radical change, prioritizing their sons' futures over issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.