The two dominant negative narratives about AI—that it's a fake bubble and that it's on the verge of creating a dangerous superintelligence—are mutually exclusive. If AI is a bubble, it's not super powerful; if it's super powerful, the economic activity is justified. This contradiction exposes the ideological roots of the doomer movement.
A growing movement in the startup community involves not using OpenAI's API. Founders fear OpenAI, in its push for revenue, will release services that directly compete with and kill startups built on its platform, similar to Microsoft's historical "embrace, extend, extinguish" strategy.
Recent election results highlight a key vulnerability for the Republican party: a substantial drop in voter turnout when Donald Trump is not the candidate. The base is less energized, leading to weaker performance in midterms and other elections. This poses a long-term strategic challenge for the party's future beyond Trump.
Without a federal framework, large blue states like California will create AI regulations. These rules, framed as prohibiting "algorithmic discrimination," will effectively force AI models to adopt DEI principles, leading to ideological capture that will affect the entire country. Federal preemption is argued as the only way to stop this.
An effectively managed sovereign wealth fund within the US government is making strategic and profitable investments in key technology companies like MP Materials and Intel. Spearheaded by entities within the DOD, this fund is cutting hard deals that benefit American taxpayers, suggesting a model for future public-private partnerships.
The growing appeal of socialism among the young is attributed to a "broken generational compact." As Peter Thiel predicted, when young people face crushing student debt and no path to homeownership, they lack a stake in the capitalist system and are more likely to turn against it, fueling movements like the one that elected a socialist mayor in NYC.
The viral $1.4 trillion spending commitment is not OpenAI's sole responsibility. It's an aggregate figure spread over 5-6 years, with an estimated half of the cost borne by partners like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle. This reframes the number from an impossible solo burden to a more manageable, shared infrastructure investment.
Unlike banking, the AI industry is fiercely competitive. With at least five major frontier model companies, the failure of one would simply lead to its market share being absorbed by rivals. This healthy competition makes the idea of a federal bailout for any single AI firm, such as OpenAI, nonsensical as none are "too big to fail."
The traditional year-end market behavior of booking wins and tax-loss harvesting has shifted. Investors, aware that price action in mid-December is typically poor, now start this rebalancing process in mid-November. This explains recent market choppiness and the shift to a "risk-off" sentiment earlier than historical patterns would suggest.
Analysis of leaked financial projections for OpenAI and Anthropic reveals a key difference. While both are on a steep growth curve, Anthropic's path to similar free cash flow appears far more capital efficient, requiring significantly less capital burn to reach profitability. This makes it a potentially more attractive investment from a risk-adjusted perspective.
Voting data from the NYC mayoral election reveals a stark divide. Residents born in the city largely rejected the socialist candidate. However, his victory was secured by overwhelming support from people who had lived in the city for less than 10 years, suggesting newcomers are more receptive to radical policies than longtime New Yorkers.
According to Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, China's real threat in the AI race isn't just its technology but its centralized ability to bypass the state-by-state regulations and power constraints bogging down US companies. While the US debates 50 legislative frameworks, China rapidly deploys infrastructure, creating a significant speed advantage.