Consumer spending resilience is not broad-based. It's largely driven by the top 10% of income earners (making over $275k), who now account for almost 50% of total spending. This is the only cohort whose spending has outpaced inflation since the pandemic, making the wider economy highly sensitive to their behavior.

The US economy is not uniform. Mastercard's real-time data reveals a persistent trend of the Southeast, particularly North and South Carolina, significantly outperforming the national average in consumer spending. In contrast, parts of the Midwest and Northeast are showing relative softness, highlighting critical regional economic divergence.

Unlike 2022, when stimulus savings allowed consumers to absorb price hikes, the financially depleted middle class now lacks the ability to pay more. This forces them to push back on price increases, creating significant consumer resistance that acts as a powerful, albeit painful, check on a new round of inflation from tariffs or other cost pressures.

Consumers increasingly frame health-related purchases like fitness trackers and AI health software as investments, not discretionary spending. Mastercard data shows this category growing at ~30% year-over-year, suggesting consumers are less price-sensitive and prioritizing longevity, making it a resilient and high-growth retail segment.

Despite a 9.1% year-over-year increase in nominal sales, Black Friday data reveals consumers bought 4.1% fewer items and dramatically increased their use of "Buy Now, Pay Later" services. This indicates that inflation, not strong consumer health, is driving top-line revenue growth for corporations.

Despite headline economic growth, the bottom 80% of U.S. households have seen their spending power stagnate since before the pandemic. Their spending has grown at exactly the rate of inflation, meaning their real consumption hasn't increased. This data explains the widespread public dissatisfaction with the economy.

E-commerce and online platforms are more than just a sales channel; they are a primary reason for consumer resilience. Digital tools provide consumers with greater spending flexibility and enhanced price discovery capabilities. This allows them to better manage their budgets and tolerate inflationary pressures by finding the best value, thus sustaining spending.

Real consumer spending is up only 1% year-to-date (non-annualized), which annualizes to a weak 1.5%. This is a significant slowdown from the typical 2-2.5% growth in previous years, indicating that consumers are substantially pulling back their expenditures.

Unlike tech companies that replan weekly, Mastercard's strategy isn't driven by short-term economic data. Instead, they focus on fundamental, multi-year shifts in consumer payment preferences, like "Buy Now, Pay Later," and re-architect their network accordingly.