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While writers and actors garner attention in the AI debate, the most immediate job threat is to 'below-the-line' workers. Roles like hair and makeup, set design, and grips are on the precipice of being disrupted or replaced by generative AI, posing a huge risk to a large segment of LA's local economy.

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Beyond displacing current workers, AI will lead to hiring "abatement," where companies proactively eliminate roles from their hiring plans altogether. This is a subtle but profound workforce shift, as entire job categories may vanish from the market before employees can be retrained.

Major studios like Netflix and Amazon are integrating AI into traditional pipelines for tasks like generating backgrounds, special effects, and animations. This lowers production costs and boosts efficiency without the PR risk associated with replacing human actors.

Contrary to hype, Hollywood's current AI adoption is focused on back-end processes where labor unions have fewer protections, like automating animation and storyboarding to cut costs. Studios are treading cautiously and are not greenlighting AI-written scripts or replacing human actors, which are protected by guild agreements.

Contrary to common belief, AI's initial impact is on white-collar roles like analysts and writers. The real bottleneck in the AI revolution is a shortage of skilled trades. Nvidia's CEO stated the biggest hurdle for data center construction is finding enough plumbers.

Hollywood has been losing film productions to cheaper locations. AI-powered visual effects could slash costs by eliminating the need for on-location filming. This could make shooting in Los Angeles economically viable again, sparking a resurgence for the city as a production hub.

Screenwriter Rhett Reese sees AI as a paradox: it's a terrifying threat to established creative jobs but also an exciting tool for new talent. AI will empower individuals without industry access or capital to produce high-quality work, breaking down traditional barriers and enabling a new generation of creators.

While AI may not cause mass unemployment, its greatest danger lies in automating the routine entry-level tasks that new workers rely on to build skills. This could disrupt traditional career ladders and create a long-term talent development crisis for organizations.

The most tangible fear of AI in Hollywood isn't replacing A-list actors, who have leverage for consent and compensation. The immediate threat is to production jobs—grips, makeup—as AI enables digital reshoots and effects, reducing the need for on-set labor.

The jobs most immediately threatened by AI are entry-level positions centered around executing a narrow set of tasks like writing ad copy. As managers can now generate this work instantly with AI, the traditional career ladder for new graduates is breaking.

Contrary to popular belief, AI will first displace jobs like call center agents and paralegals. Physical roles like carpentry will remain for a long time because robots capable of such complex manual tasks are further away.