As AI infrastructure giants become government-backed utilities, their investment appeal diminishes like banks after 2008. The next wave of value creation will come from stagnant, existing businesses that adopt AI to unlock new margins, leveraging their established brands and distribution channels rather than building new rails from scratch.

Startups often fail to displace incumbents because they become successful 'point solutions' and get acquired. The harder path to a much larger outcome is to build the entire integrated stack from the start, but initially serve a simpler, down-market customer segment before moving up.

Unlike mobile or internet shifts that created openings for startups, AI is an "accelerating technology." Large companies can integrate it quickly, closing the competitive window for new entrants much faster than in previous platform shifts. The moat is no longer product execution but customer insight.

AI favors incumbents more than startups. While everyone builds on similar models, true network effects come from proprietary data and consumer distribution, both of which incumbents own. Startups are left with narrow problems, but high-quality incumbents are moving fast enough to capture these opportunities.

Consumer innovation arrives in predictable waves after major technological shifts. The browser created Amazon and eBay; mobile created Uber and Instagram. The current AI platform shift is creating the same conditions for a new, massive wave of consumer technology companies.

Vanguard's marketing became crucial when the company transitioned from a market disruptor to an incumbent being copied. The initial disruption created its own buzz, but as a market leader, Vanguard had to actively invest in marketing to differentiate its message.

Dominant aggregator platforms are often misjudged as being vulnerable to technological disruption (e.g., Uber vs. robo-taxis). Their real strength lies in their network, allowing them to integrate and offer new technologies from various providers, thus becoming beneficiaries rather than victims of innovation.

Seeing an existing successful business is validation, not a deterrent. By copying their current model, you start where they are today, bypassing their years of risky experimentation and learning. The market is large enough for multiple winners.

David Vélez uses the "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and then you win" framework to describe Nubank's journey. This provides a predictable roadmap for disruptors, helping them anticipate and navigate the evolving reactions from established players.