With information now ubiquitous, the primary source of market inefficiency is no longer informational but behavioral. The most durable edge is "time arbitrage"—exploiting the market's obsession with short-term results by focusing on a business's normalized potential over a two-to-four-year horizon.

Contrary to popular belief, the market may be getting less efficient. The dominance of indexing, quant funds, and multi-manager pods—all with short time horizons—creates dislocations. This leaves opportunities for long-term investors to buy valuable assets that are neglected because their path to value creation is uncertain.

Private credit allows investors to act like chefs—deeply involved from ingredient sourcing (diligence) to final creation (structuring). Liquid market investors are like food critics, limited to analyzing the finished product with restricted access to information, which increases risk.

Top-tier private companies like Stripe and Databricks are actively choosing to delay IPOs, viewing the public market as an inferior "product." With access to cheaper private capital and freedom from quarterly scrutiny and activist investors, staying private offers a better environment to build long-term value.

David Craver asserts that being an active private market investor is an "imperative" for success in public markets. The research and insights gained from late-stage, pre-IPO companies provide crucial information that directly informs and strengthens a firm's public equity investment strategy in an interconnected landscape.

Today's markets are less efficient because the dominant players—passive funds, retail traders, and short-term quants—do not invest based on long-term fundamentals. This creates a significant arbitrage opportunity for investors who are willing to focus on a company's intrinsic value over a one- to three-year horizon, a timeframe now largely ignored.

Dan Sundheim argues successful private companies should avoid going public. Public market volatility means stock prices, and thus employee compensation, are driven by sentiment, not fundamental value creation. Being dramatically overvalued can be as harmful as being undervalued, as it misaligns incentives for future hires.

The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.

In today's crowded market, the key PE differentiator is no longer financial engineering but the ability to identify and cultivate relationships with target companies months or years before a sale process. This provides the necessary time for deep diligence and strategic planning.