Private credit allows investors to act like chefs—deeply involved from ingredient sourcing (diligence) to final creation (structuring). Liquid market investors are like food critics, limited to analyzing the finished product with restricted access to information, which increases risk.
Backing independent sponsors on a deal-by-deal basis is more than an investment strategy; it is an extended due diligence process. This approach provides deep, real-time insights into a manager's problem-solving skills under pressure, offering transparency that is impossible to achieve before a Fund I commitment.
Identifying flawed investments, especially in opaque markets like private credit, is rarely about one decisive discovery. It involves assembling a 'mosaic' from many small pieces of information and red flags. This gradual build-up of evidence is what allows for an early, profitable exit before negatives become obvious to all.
Companies are willing to pay a 150-200 basis point premium for private credit to gain a strategic partner who provides bespoke financing, governance, and expertise for complex needs like carve-outs. This partnership value proposition distinguishes it from transactional public markets.
While the US private credit market is saturated, Europe's middle-market offers higher spreads (north of 600 basis points) and lower leverage. This opportunity is most pronounced in non-sponsor deals, a segment where large banks and public markets are less active, creating a lucrative niche.
Recent "canary in the coal mine" cases like First Brands, often blamed on private markets, were not PE-owned and were primarily financed in liquid markets. In fact, it was private credit firms pushing for deeper diligence that exposed the issues, strengthening the argument that private credit offers a safer way to access the asset class.
Corporations are increasingly shifting from asset-heavy to capital-light models, often through complex transactions like sale-leasebacks. This strategic trend creates bespoke financing needs that are better served by the flexible solutions of private credit providers than by rigid public markets.
Despite headlines blaming private credit for failures like First Brands, the vast majority (over 95%) of the exposure lies with banks and in the liquid credit markets. This narrative overlooks the structural advantages and deeper diligence inherent in private deals.
Unlike US firms focused on rapid exits, many multi-generational European family businesses prioritize stability and privacy. They actively dislike the anonymity and disclosure requirements of public markets, creating a strong, relationship-driven demand for tailored private lending solutions.
The two credit markets are converging, creating a symbiotic relationship beneficial to both borrowers and investors. Instead of competing, they serve different needs, and savvy investors should combine them opportunistically rather than pitting them against each other.
A credit investor's true edge lies not in understanding a company's operations, but in mastering the right-hand side of the balance sheet. This includes legal structures, credit agreements, and bankruptcy processes. Private equity investors, who are owners, will always have superior knowledge of the business itself (the left-hand side).