Unlike surgery or engineering, success in finance depends more on behavior than intelligence. A disciplined amateur who controls greed and fear can outperform a PhD from MIT who makes poor behavioral decisions. This highlights that temperament is the most critical variable for long-term financial success.

Speculation is often maligned as mere gambling, but it is a critical component for price discovery, liquidity, and risk transfer in any healthy financial market. Without speculators, markets would be inefficient. Prediction markets are an explicit tool to harness this power for accurate forecasting.

While Donald Trump may treat departments like Education or Defense as a "joke," he appears to take economic roles like the Fed Chair more seriously, appointing actual economists. This suggests he sees the economy as a direct, tangible scorecard of his success, requiring a baseline of competence that other areas do not.

Contrary to popular belief, successful entrepreneurs are not reckless risk-takers. They are experts at systematically eliminating risk. They validate demand before building, structure deals to minimize capital outlay (e.g., leasing planes), and enter markets with weak competition. Their goal is to win with the least possible exposure.

In fields like finance, communities with strong internal communication and vested interests make better long-term decisions than purely quantitative models. The group's "shared wisdom" provides a broader, more contextual view of risks and opportunities that myopic mathematical approaches often miss.

A business school professor's expertise is validated by the free market, not just the university. If they are truly skilled, they should command a seven-figure income from external opportunities like books, speaking, and consulting. Their university salary should only represent a small fraction (15-20%) of their total earnings.

Experience taught Herb Wagner that great leaders consistently surprise on the upside. He now weights leadership quality far more heavily, assessing CEOs not by interviews or charisma, but by their verifiable track record and through trusted backchannel references who have worked with them directly.

During profound economic instability, the winning strategy isn't chasing the highest returns, but rather avoiding catastrophic loss. The greatest risks are not missed upside, but holding only cash as inflation erodes its value or relying solely on a paycheck.

According to Ken Griffin, legendary investors aren't just right more often. Their key trait is having deep clarity on their specific competitive advantage and the conviction to bet heavily on it. Equally important is the discipline to unemotionally cut losses when wrong and simply move on.