While Donald Trump may treat departments like Education or Defense as a "joke," he appears to take economic roles like the Fed Chair more seriously, appointing actual economists. This suggests he sees the economy as a direct, tangible scorecard of his success, requiring a baseline of competence that other areas do not.
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Public company boards often hire CEOs using fuzzy adjectives like 'leader.' A better method is to first define 3-5 key strategic goals, creating a 'scorecard of success,' and then find a candidate whose track record specifically matches those objectives.
Before hiring for a critical function, founders should do the job themselves, even if they aren't experts. The goal isn't mastery, but to deeply understand the role's challenges. This experience is crucial for setting a high hiring bar and being able to accurately assess if a candidate will truly up-level the team.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that after accounting for statistical anomalies, "job creation is pretty close to zero." He directly attributes this to CEOs confirming that AI allows them to operate with fewer people, marking a major official acknowledgment of AI's deflationary effect on the labor market.
Unlike a functional manager who can develop junior talent, a CEO lacks the domain expertise to coach their entire executive team (e.g., CFO, VP of HR). A CEO's time is better spent hiring world-class leaders who provide 'managerial leverage' by bringing new ideas and driving their function forward, rather than trying to fix people in roles they've never done.
The US has historically benefited from a baseline level of high competence in its government officials, regardless of party. This tradition is now eroding, being replaced by a focus on loyalty over expertise. This degradation from competence to acolytes poses a significant, underrecognized threat to national stability and global standing.
A clear statement from a financial leader like the Fed Chair can instantly create common knowledge, leading to market movements based on speculation about others' reactions. Alan Greenspan's infamous "mumbling" was a strategic choice to avoid this, preventing a cycle of self-fulfilling expectations.
The inability to execute basic administrative functions, like correctly appointing a prosecutor, is more than just embarrassing—it's a national security risk. It projects weakness and incompetence on the world stage, eroding the 'brand' of American capability and emboldening adversaries who see a clown car instead of a superpower.
To improve federal efficiency beyond partisan politics, Oliver Libby proposes creating a Chief Operating Officer for the U.S. government. Modeled after the long-term, cross-administration tenure of the Fed Chair, this role would focus on making government work better for citizens regardless of who is in power.
The current market boom, largely driven by AI enthusiasm, provides critical political cover for the Trump administration. An AI market downturn would severely weaken his political standing. This creates an incentive for the administration to take extraordinary measures, like using government funds to backstop private AI companies, to prevent a collapse.
Political allies often remain silent critics until a leader's power begins to wane. The recent increase in Republicans publicly questioning Trump's economic grasp demonstrates this principle. This belated courage is more about political survival and opportunism than genuine conviction, emerging only after the personal risk has subsided.
