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  1. Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
  2. The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show
The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory · Nov 13, 2025

Analyzing the Democratic party's civil war, the AI bubble's fragility, the ACA's flaws, and rising threats from lawfare and censorship.

Outlawing 'Disinformation' Is Inherently Authoritarian and Halts Progress

Making misinformation illegal is dangerous because human progress relies on being wrong and correcting course through open debate. Granting any entity the power to define absolute 'truth' and punish dissent is a hallmark of authoritarianism that freezes intellectual and societal development.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago

A Government Shutdown Can Be a PR Stunt to Weaken an Opponent, Not a Policy Fight

A political party might intentionally trigger a government shutdown not to win policy concessions, but to create a public narrative of a dysfunctional opposition. The true victory isn't legislative but reputational, aiming to sway voters in upcoming elections by making the ruling party look incompetent.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago

Populist Politicians Win by Mastering Social Media Algorithms, Not by Fundraising

Modern populists gain influence by creating organic content that captures algorithmic attention, effectively turning a small campaign budget into disproportionate reach. This bottom-up strategy bypasses traditional, money-driven political machines by treating social attention as the primary currency, not dollars.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago

A Market Crash's True Danger Is the Resulting Wealth Inequality, Not Just the Recession

Historically, what tears societies apart is not economic depression itself but runaway wealth inequality. A major bubble bursting would dramatically widen the gap between asset holders and everyone else, fueling the populist anger and political violence that directly leads to civil unrest.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago

Trust Economic 'Gladiators' Who Risked Their Own Capital, Not Just Theorists

Policymakers and experts who have a track record of success in high-stakes financial markets (risking their own money) possess a practical understanding that academics often lack. Being a market 'gladiator' with real wins and losses is a more reliable indicator of economic competence than credentials alone.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago

Governments Should Fund Foundational R&D Then Exit for Private Sector Efficiency

The most effective government role in innovation is to act as a catalyst for high-risk, foundational R&D (like DARPA creating the internet). Once a technology is viable, the government should step aside to allow private sector competition (like SpaceX) to drive down costs and accelerate progress.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago

The Affordable Care Act's Subsidies Create a Vicious Cycle of Rising Healthcare Costs

Government subsidies within healthcare systems like the ACA create a perverse incentive for providers and insurers to inflate prices. This triggers a toxic flywheel: higher costs demand more subsidies, which in turn fuel further price hikes, making the underlying problem of affordability worse over time.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago

The Stock Market Is a 'PVPVE' Game Where Retail Investors Are Usually the Prey

The market is a 'Player vs. Player vs. Environment' game where retail investors play against pros trying to take their money (PvP) amid unpredictable global events (PvE). The only reliable winning strategy for the average person is to refuse to play the short-term PvP game and instead invest long-term.

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show thumbnail

The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory·3 months ago