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Investor James Sagan argues OnlyFans could go public in the US because private markets can be more limiting due to LP agreements and reputational fears among a concentrated group. He suggests public markets, being more anonymous and rules-based, may be more receptive to a legal but controversial business.
Founders stay private to avoid scrutiny, but this insulates them from critical feedback, as private investors are incentivized to be sycophantic to maintain access. Rigorous public market questioning forces CEOs to confront flaws and make better strategic decisions, as Mark Zuckerberg reportedly admitted regarding Facebook's mobile strategy.
Similar to the short-lived direct listing wave, the idea of staying private indefinitely will likely only apply to a handful of elite, capital-rich companies like SpaceX. The vast majority of successful startups will still follow the traditional IPO path to provide liquidity and access public markets.
Brian Chesky argues that large, late-stage private companies experience the downsides of public scrutiny without the benefits. There's an "insatiable desire" from outsiders to "get to the truth," creating more speculative pressure than the regulated transparency of being a public company.
Contrary to popular belief, staying private isn't always easier. The administrative burden of managing secondary share sales and controlling who gets on the cap table is a significant headache for CEOs, making an IPO an attractive solution for simplicity and control.
While many private founders fear going public, David George of a16z claims he's never met a public CEO who regrets it. Key benefits include easier and often cheaper access to capital compared to private markets, increased transparency, and the discipline it instills. The narrative of public market misery is overblown for most successful companies.
The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.
Beyond high compliance costs, companies are deterred from going public by the constant threat of "vexatious" class-action lawsuits following any stock dip and the weaponization of shareholder proposals, which makes managing annual general meetings a significant burden. These factors discourage the transition to public markets.
The process of going public establishes a clear market price for a company, an act of 'price discovery.' This transparency, combined with the discipline of quarterly reporting, can make a company a more attractive and straightforward acquisition target, as seen with Slack.
By removing harmful intermediaries and giving creators 80% of revenue, OnlyFans provides a safer, more empowering model for sex work compared to historical alternatives. Investor James Sagan argues this “harm reduction” positioning is a core part of the investment thesis.
OnlyFans was valued at less than 3x revenue despite high profitability because most investors had "broad reputational concerns," not moral objections. This fear created a significant valuation discount, offering an arbitrage opportunity for firms like Architect Capital willing to manage the stigma.